## Session overview Overnight, gainers were led by PG up 1.91%, NKE up 1.79%, NVDA up 1.68%, BMY up 1.62% and XOM up 1.20%. Decliners were led by QCOM down 7.17%, BA down 6.91%, INTC down 5.67%, META down 4.79% and TSLA down 3.94%. ## Compared with previo

Verdict: a disciplined dip-buyer with a real track record — but nothing is live yet

The idea is a mechanical buy-the-dip system across ten megacaps, and its strongest point is genuine evidence: across 60 months it produced 51 trades at a 117.7% cumulative return, a 17.6% maximum drawdown, and the shorter 24- and 12-month windows corroborated the edge with win rates near 55%. The strongest point against is that none of the entry conditions are met today — QCOM and TSLA sit at a daily RSI of 36.0 with ADX of 26.7 and 26.8, needing more weakness to hit the RSI-30 and ADX-25 gates, while BA's RSI of 22.6 is oversold but its ADX of 47.9 is far too high — and the parameter-sensitivity review issued no recommendation, so the 4.9% take-profit and 2.4% stop have no demonstrated robustness. The fundamental backdrop is mixed: BMY delivered revenue up 12.9% and free cash flow up roughly 308%, but insider filings for the June 2026 period show net open-market selling at eight of ten names, including about $569M at NVDA, and INTC, QCOM and TSLA all reported deteriorating quarters. What would flip the verdict is either live confirmation of the entry thresholds on a weak-trend name or a September 2026 ownership filing showing insider selling reversing. Until then, this is a watchlist, not a trade.

Trade now: Wait for the oversold-and-calming filter to align

Nothing in this setup is executable today, and that is the honest read. The strategy waits for a long entry on the daily bars when the 14-period RSI sits at or below 30, the 14-period ADX sits at or below 25, the day's low tags the nearest support, and the close holds above that support. On the live intraday readings, no ticker meets all conditions. BA is the closest on momentum — its RSI is 22.6, already under 30 after last night's 6.91% drop — but its ADX is 47.9, more than 22.9 points above the 25 threshold, so the trend is still too violent for the filter. PG, NKE and XOM have already calmed down (ADX at 19.2, 11.9 and 22.3 respectively) but their RSI readings of 54.9, 44.7 and 42.1 are nowhere near 30. QCOM is the name I would watch hardest given the session: it fell 7.17% overnight after being the prior night's biggest gainer, and its daily-price RSI of 36.0 needs only about 6 more points of weakness to reach 30 — but its ADX of 26.7 is still slightly too high, so both conditions need to converge. TSLA sits at RSI 36.0 with ADX 26.8, in a similar almost-there state. The strategy is backtested over 60 months on the daily timeframe with 51 trades, a 117.7% total return, a 41.2% win rate and a 17.6% maximum drawdown, so the pattern it hunts — oversold exhaustion into support with fading trend strength — has a track record; the waiting is not a trust question, it is the discipline. What 'wait' means concretely: keep alerts at RSI 30 and ADX 25 for each name, and note the fixed exit rails — a 2.4% stop and a 4.9% take-profit apply to any position, with resistance-level closes as upside targets and support-break closes as downside exits. Positions are capped at 10% each with roughly 2.4% of equity risked per trade. One caveat on tuning: the parameter-sensitivity review concluded with no recommendation — no robust alternative setup was established — so the published thresholds (RSI 30, ADX 25) are used exactly as written, with no optimizer-adjusted variant applied.

Buy-the-Dip Has Earned Its Keep Across These Ten Names

The idea is a mechanical buy-the-dip strategy across ten megacaps — PG, BMY, XOM, BA, INTC, META, NKE, NVDA, QCOM and TSLA — entering longs when a 14-day RSI drops below 30, trend strength is weak (ADX below 25), and price holds its first support level, with exits at the first resistance, a fixed 4.9% profit target, or a 2.4% stop. This is a backtested, completed-signal design, not a forecast about any single session. The headline numbers argue the approach has real, repeatable logic. Over the full 60-month window the best-performing pairing produced 51 trades at a 41.2% win rate and a 117.7% cumulative return, capped by a maximum drawdown of 17.6%. A sub-42% win rate sounds weak until you notice the asymmetry: fixed ~4.9% profit targets against ~2.4% stops mean winners need only hit roughly twice as often as losers' losses to compound meaningfully — and the equity curve shows that compounding at work through 2024–2026. The shorter windows corroborate rather than contradict it. The 24-month evaluation produced a 55.2% win rate across 29 trades with a 64.8% return, and the 12-month window ran at 55.6% with 29.5% returned. That consistency across three different starting points suggests the recent-period edge is not an artifact of one lucky stretch. The fundamental backdrop gives the dip-buying thesis something to catch. NVDA's latest quarter showed revenue up 17.9% sequentially to $96.2B with a 63.0% net margin, and the Bloomberg piece notes it just boosted its buyback authorization by $150B — real support under any oversold print. BMY posted $3.3B of quarterly net income with free cash flow up roughly 308% quarter over quarter, and pays a $2.46 trailing dividend. Even the beaten-down names the strategy buys are still generating cash: BA swung from a $1.45B free cash outflow in Q1 to a $631M inflow in Q2 on $24.6B of revenue. Finally, the rules are deliberately selective: requiring both oversold RSI and weak ADX, plus a close back above first support, keeps the strategy from buying into a true trend breakdown. That structure is what produced the 17.6% worst-case drawdown rather than something far uglier.

The Drawdown, the Win Rate, and a Sell-Signaling Insider Class

Start with the honest cost of this strategy: it loses most of the time. Across the 60-month window, 41.2% of 51 trades were winners, and the maximum drawdown reached 17.6%. In plain language, in a bad stretch this system can give back nearly a fifth of equity while you wait for the next oversold snap-back — and the exit fills were computed on daily bars, not intrabar data, so reported drawdown and win rate should be treated as coarse rather than precise. The parameter question is unresolved. The research author did not obtain a robust, nearby-parameter recommendation — the bounded walk-forward sensitivity evaluation ran out of its time budget with zero variants tested and no recommendation issued. The 4.9% take-profit and 2.4% stop thresholds on the live setup therefore have no demonstrated robustness envelope; a reader cannot know how much of the historical result depends on those exact numbers. Insider posture is a headwind across much of the basket. Per 13F/insider filings for the period ended June 30, 2026, insiders were net open-market sellers at eight of the ten names — including roughly $569M of net selling at NVDA, $55.1M at META, and $6.5M at INTC. Buying dips in companies whose own officers are net sellers is a genuine behavioral signal to weigh, even if filing data lags price. The fundamentals under some of the entries are deteriorating, not stabilizing. BA's Q2 net income was a $444M loss with gross margin compressed to 9.8% from 11.5% the prior quarter, its dividend has paid nothing for years, and per Reuters the FAA says a software issue will delay 737 MAX certification — a fresh adverse catalyst on the exact name that fell 6.91% overnight. INTC swung to an $11.0B quarterly net loss with debt-to-equity up 42.8% to 0.58, and QCOM — the session's biggest decliner at 7.17% — saw net income fall 72.8% quarter over quarter. META's free cash flow collapsed 86.8% to $1.7B on AI capex, and TSLA posted negative $1.1B free cash flow in the latest quarter. Finally, the news tape itself illustrates the regime risk: the prior session's top gainer, QCOM at +3.97%, flipped to the biggest loser at 7.17% within one session, while INTC and META extended losing streaks for a second straight night. Momentum reversals of that speed can push several names into oversold territory simultaneously — precisely when a dip-buying system accumulates its largest aggregate exposure.

Company context

### BA **Ownership and insiders.** For the period ending 2026-06-30, 20 reporting holders were counted holding 40960740 reported shares. Coverage: Deadline Passed. **Management.** Mr. Robert K. Ortberg is identified as chief executive. Mr. Robert K. Ortberg is listed as President, CEO & Director, with reported total pay of US$6.1M for fiscal 2025. Source: [Yahoo Finance quoteSummary](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/profile), retrieved 2026-09-29T04:07:21.95+00:00. **Dividends.** Trailing twelve-month distributions total USD 0 per share; the latest observed ex-date was 2020-02-13 at USD 2.055 per share. Source: [Yahoo Finance corporate actions](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/history?filter=div), retrieved 2026-09-29T04:07:21.95+00:00. **Fundamental changes.** Latest reported comparisons: - Free cash flow: USD 631.0M for Q2 ending 2026-06-30 versus USD -1.5B for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 · quarter over quarter - Gross margin: 9.8% for Q2 ending 2026-06-30 versus 11.4% for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 (-1.6 percentage points) · quarter over quarter - Net Income: USD -444.0M for Q2 ending 2026-06-30 versus USD -4.0M for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 · quarter over quarter - Net margin: -1.8% for Q2 ending 2026-06-30 versus -0.0% for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 (-1.8 percentage points) · quarter over quarter - Operating Cash Flow: USD 1.4B for Q2 ending 2026-06-30 versus USD -179.0M for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 · quarter over quarter - Operating margin: 0.6% for Q2 ending 2026-06-30 versus 2.0% for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 (-1.4 percentage points) · quarter over quarter - Revenue: USD 24.6B for Q2 ending 2026-06-30 versus USD 22.2B for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 (+10.6%) · quarter over quarter - Return on equity: -7.2% for Q2 ending 2026-06-30 versus -0.0% for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 (-7.2 percentage points) · quarter over quarter - Shares Outstanding: 790.4M shares for Q2 ending 2026-06-30 versus 788.3M shares for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 (+0.3%) · quarter over quarter Source: Reported company financial data. Comparisons use consecutive reported periods at the same cadence and compatible units. Relative percentage changes require a positive baseline; rate changes are expressed in percentage points. **Unavailable comparisons.** - Debt to equity: The latest period's value is unavailable. ### BMY **Ownership and insiders.** For the period ending 2026-06-30, 18 reporting holders were counted holding 109416091 reported shares. Insider filings indicate net open-market selling, netting US$-437247.93. Coverage: Deadline Passed. **Management.** Dr. Christopher S. Boerner Ph.D. is identified as chief executive. Dr. Christopher S. Boerner Ph.D. is listed as CEO & Chairman, with reported total pay of US$5.8M for fiscal 2025. Source: [Yahoo Finance quoteSummary](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY/profile), retrieved 2026-09-29T04:07:21.95+00:00. **Dividends.** Trailing twelve-month distributions total USD 2.51 per share; the latest observed ex-date was 2026-07-02 at USD 0.63 per share. The latest annual comparison is +2.0%. Source: [Yahoo Finance corporate actions](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY/history?filter=div), retrieved 2026-09-29T04:07:21.95+00:00. **Fundamental changes.** Latest reported comparisons: - Debt to equity: 1.93x for Q2 ending 2026-06-30 versus 2.22x for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 (-12.8%) · quarter over quarter - Free cash flow: USD 3.1B for Q2 ending 2026-06-30 versus USD 757.0M for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 (+307.9%) · quarter over quarter - Gross margin: 71.2% for Q2 ending 2026-06-30 versus 70.2% for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 (+1.1 percentage points) · quarter over quarter - Net Income: USD 3.3B for Q2 ending 2026-06-30 versus USD 2.7B for Q1…

Scores

• Conviction score breakdown: 50
• Thesis support: 58
• Trade readiness: 30
• Risk quality: 55
• Backtest evidence: 62
• Fundamentals trend: 45

Watch items

• BA — ADX (14)
• QCOM — RSI (14)
• TSLA — ADX (14)
• PG — RSI (14)
• XOM — RSI (14)
• NVDA — Insider net open-market activity
• META — Operating margin
• BMY — RSI (14)