## Session overview Overnight, gainers were led by META up 4.50%, INTC up 3.91%, AMD up 2.38%, VZ up 1.72% and TME up 1.46%. Decliners were led by UPS down 3.93%, ORCL down 3.47%, WMT down 2.66%, ABT down 2.34% and CMCSA down 1.86%. ## Compared with previ

Verdict: wait for the entries to confirm — the setup is close but not armed

The idea is a five-name long setup that buys pullbacks inside uptrends on daily bars, and its strongest support is a real traded record: the META leg returned 51.0% over nine months on 12 trades (41.7% win rate, 14.3% max drawdown), showing the 2:1 exit geometry can pay even without a high hit rate. The strongest risk is that the evidence is thin and the fundamentals under the leaders are deteriorating — Meta's free cash flow fell 86.8% quarter over quarter to $1.7B, Oracle has run negative free cash flow for three straight quarters (negative $5.4B in the latest one), and June 30, 2026 filings show net insider selling at META, AMD, ORCL, INTC and WMT. Meanwhile META (RSI 79.3), INTC (77.5) and AMD (85.6) fail the entry filters decisively, so the only near-live legs are VZ (already met) and TME (0.22 below its EMA). Verdict: wait — trade only what confirms, starting with Verizon holding above its EMA into the close. A completed entry confirmation on VZ, or TME reclaiming 7.97, would flip this toward buying; a break below the 50-day EMA on either name kills it.

Trade now: one signal set is live, four are cooling off

This is a five-name long strategy on daily bars (META, INTC, AMD, VZ and TME) that goes long only when three things line up: price above the 50-day EMA, RSI (14) below 65, and ADX (14) below 30, with an optional faster trigger when the daily low taps the nearest support level while the close holds above it. Positions then exit on RSI above 75, a touch of the first resistance level, a hard stop at -2.4%, or a take-profit at +4.8% — roughly 2:1 reward to risk. Right now the setup is closest to live in the VZ-ruled entry block: the current price of 148.55 sits just above its 50-day EMA of 148.22 (met), RSI (14) is 55.5 (met, needs to stay below 65), and ADX (14) is 23.4 (met, below 30). All three entry conditions for that leg read as met in the live state, so "wait" there means waiting for the session to confirm rather than for conditions to travel. The TME-labeled leg is next-closest: price of 7.75 is only about 0.22 below its EMA of 7.97, RSI (14) is 38.3 (met) and ADX (14) is 6.1 (met) — a single push back above the EMA arms it. The three hot names are the opposite problem. META (RSI 79.3, ADX 66.6), INTC (RSI 77.5, ADX 55.0) and AMD (RSI 85.6, ADX 87.4) all clear the price-above-EMA test but fail the RSI-below-65 and ADX-below-30 filters decisively — these are momentum exhaustion readings, and chasing them today is exactly what the rule set is designed to avoid. Concretely, waiting means: no new entries until RSI (14) cools below 65 and ADX (14) drops below 30 on those names, while watching whether VZ and TME hold their levels into the close. Evidence read: the completed 9-month backtest on the META leg returned 51.0% across 12 trades with a 41.7% win rate and a 14.3% maximum drawdown — the payoff comes from the 2:1 exit geometry, not a high hit rate, which is why the -2.4% stop is non-negotiable. No robust parameter setup was established by the sensitivity run (its evaluation budget was exceeded), so we run the published thresholds exactly as written.

The pullback buyer's case

This idea leans on a completed backtest on the META daily sleeve that actually traded: 12 trades over nine months produced a 51.0% return with a 41.7% win rate and a worst equity-curve drawdown of 14.3%. That is not a flawless record — it loses more often than it wins — but the winners clearly ran, which is exactly the profile a trend-following long setup in names like META, INTC, AMD, VZ and TME needs. The fundamentals of the sleeve's leader support the momentum read. Meta's latest quarter showed revenue of $60.8B, up 8.0% quarter over quarter, with a gross margin still above 81% and a 26.1% net margin — thinning from Q1's 47.5% but a long way from broken. INTC's +3.91% overnight move sits on a genuinely improving print: revenue of $16.1B, up 18.8% quarter over quarter, free cash flow swinging from negative $2.5B to positive $4.5B, and operating margin recovering to 11.1% from negative 23.1%. AMD added $11.5B in revenue (+12.5% quarter over quarter) with net income up 66.1% and net margin of 19.9%. Income durability is real on part of the sleeve too. VZ holds a trailing dividend of $2.80 per share with growth in the most recent raises, and TME generated nearly $10B in free cash flow in its latest fiscal year with a 23.4% net margin — the kind of balance that gives the strategy dry ground to hold through choppy tape. TME's ownership base is thin (only 7 reporting holders, a single-reporter filing dated the June 30, 2026 period), so the multi-name structure helps here: mixing thinner-coverage exposure like TME with deep institutional books in META and WMT (31 holders each) spreads that fragility, a point the dedicated cross-stock section quantifies. The trade-off is explicit in the entry logic: the strategy waits for pullbacks toward first support while price holds above the 50-day EMA, with RSI under 65 and ADX under 30 — it buys consolidation, not breakouts. In a basket where three of five names just printed accelerating revenue and two carry fortress margins, buying shallow pullbacks inside an uptrend is a coherent thesis, and the nine-month record shows it has paid.

When the winners stop winning

Start with the record's quality, stated plainly: the only traded window is nine months on the META sleeve — 12 trades, a 41.7% win rate, and a 14.3% maximum drawdown. Longer evaluation attempts (12, 24 and 60 months) failed to run because Meta daily data could not be fully loaded, so the completed evidence is short, concentrated in one name, and the exits were filled on daily bars rather than intrabar data — the engine itself flags that reported drawdown and win rate are coarse and may flatter exit quality. No robust parameter setup was established either: the sensitivity evaluation exceeded its time budget with zero variants tested, so the rules in play were retained as authored, not stress-selected. The fundamentals under the leaders show real deterioration where it hurts a momentum trade. Meta's free cash flow collapsed 86.8% quarter over quarter to $1.7B, net margin dropped 21.5 percentage points to 26.1%, and operating margin fell nearly 10 points to 30.9% — a spending-driven squeeze that historically precedes multiple compression even when revenue still grows. ORCL, meanwhile, has posted negative free cash flow for three straight reported quarters, deepening to negative $5.4B in the quarter ended August 31, 2026; the shares are already down 3.47% two sessions in a row per the session overview. Ownership posture is unhelpful across the basket. Filings for the period ended June 30, 2026 show net open-market insider selling at META (about $54.7M), AMD (about $176.2M), INTC, VZ-adjacent WMT (about $1.06B in net selling by insiders at Walmart) and ORCL (about $45.0M) — five of the sleeve's names show net selling rather than accumulation. WMT's own latest quarter, the dividend anchor of the wider list, showed free cash flow down to $6.1B and a 2.4% net margin; its dividend growth has flattened to 0.15% annually, so the quality-cash narrative there is thinner than the headline suggests. Finally, the drawdown math: the traded sleeve already swung 14.3% peak-to-trough in a nine-month window, and the strategy's fixed stop sits at 2.4% per position with a 4.8% profit target. With single-name catalysts in this basket capable of 4-5% overnight moves (the current session saw UPS down 3.93% and ORCL down 3.47%), a stop at 2.4% can be hit by ordinary overnight noise in exactly the names the sleeve trades. Add a single-reporter TME book with only seven holders, and the question is whether the 42% win rate survives contact with a drawdown regime rather than a tailwind one.

Company context

### ABT **Ownership and insiders.** For the period ending 2026-06-30, 19 reporting holders were counted holding 103238656 reported shares. Insider filings indicate net open-market selling, netting US$-46676621.46. Coverage: Deadline Passed. **Management.** Mr. Robert B. Ford is identified as chief executive. Mr. Robert B. Ford is listed as Executive Chairman & CEO, with reported total pay of US$4.4M for fiscal 2022. Source: [Yahoo Finance quoteSummary](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ABT/profile), retrieved 2026-09-25T04:04:22.61+00:00. **Dividends.** Trailing twelve-month distributions total USD 2.48 per share; the latest observed ex-date was 2026-07-15 at USD 0.63 per share. The latest annual comparison is +6.9%. Source: [Yahoo Finance corporate actions](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ABT/history?filter=div), retrieved 2026-09-25T04:04:22.61+00:00. **Fundamental changes.** Latest reported comparisons: - Free cash flow: USD 916.0M for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 versus USD 2.6B for Q4 ending 2025-12-31 (-65.1%) · quarter over quarter - Gross margin: 56.1% for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 versus 57.0% for Q4 ending 2025-12-31 (-0.8 percentage points) · quarter over quarter - Net Income: USD 1.1B for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 versus USD 1.8B for Q4 ending 2025-12-31 (-39.4%) · quarter over quarter - Net margin: 9.6% for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 versus 15.4% for Q4 ending 2025-12-31 (-5.8 percentage points) · quarter over quarter - Operating Cash Flow: USD 1.3B for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 versus USD 3.3B for Q4 ending 2025-12-31 (-60.3%) · quarter over quarter - Operating margin: 12.0% for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 versus 19.6% for Q4 ending 2025-12-31 (-7.6 percentage points) · quarter over quarter - Revenue: USD 11.2B for Q1 ending 2026-03-31 versus USD 11.5B for Q4 ending 2025-12-31 (-2.6%) · quarter over quarter Source: Reported company financial data. Comparisons use consecutive reported periods at the same cadence and compatible units. Relative percentage changes require a positive baseline; rate changes are expressed in percentage points. **Unavailable comparisons.** - Debt to equity: The latest period's value is unavailable. - Return on equity: The previous period's value is unavailable. - Shares Outstanding: The previous period's value is unavailable. ### AMD **Ownership and insiders.** For the period ending 2026-06-30, 25 reporting holders were counted holding 84534890 reported shares. Insider filings indicate net open-market selling, netting US$-176175867.7. Coverage: Deadline Passed. **Management.** Dr. Lisa T. Su Ph.D. is identified as chief executive. Dr. Lisa T. Su Ph.D. is listed as Chair, President & CEO, with reported total pay of US$4.5M for fiscal 2025. Source: [Yahoo Finance quoteSummary](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/profile), retrieved 2026-09-25T04:02:49.8+00:00. **Dividends.** The provider's ten-year corporate-action history contains no cash dividend payments. Source: [Yahoo Finance corporate actions](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history?filter=div), retrieved 2026-09-25T04:02:49.8+00:00. **Fundamental changes.** Latest reported comparisons: - Debt to equity: 0.05x for Q2 ending 2026-06-27 versus 0.05x for Q1 ending 2026-03-28 (-4.0%) · quarter over quarter - Free cash flow: USD 1.6B for Q2 ending 2026-06-27 versus USD 2.6B for Q1 ending 2026-03-28 (-39.3%) · quarter over quarter - Gross margin: 53.7% for Q2 ending 2026-06-27 versus 52.8% for Q1 ending 2026-03-28 (+0.9 percentage points) · quarter over quarter - Net Income: USD 2.3B for Q2 ending 2026-06-27 versus USD 1.4B for Q1 ending 2026-03-28 (+66.1%) · quarter over quarter - Net margin: 19.9% for Q2 ending 2026-06-27…

Scores

• Conviction score breakdown: 54
• Thesis support: 65
• Trade readiness: 55
• Risk quality: 50
• Backtest evidence: 55
• Fundamentals trend: 45

Watch items

• VZ — Price vs 50-day EMA (148.22)
• TME — Price vs 50-day EMA (7.97)
• META — RSI (14) and ADX (14)
• INTC — RSI (14) and ADX (14)
• AMD — RSI (14) and ADX (14)
• TME — Price vs 50-day EMA (7.97)