Public trading strategy
TSMC's strong earnings can't save chip stocks — short the AI hardware hangover
Created
Thesis
The market is displaying a classic 'sell the news' reaction to TSMC's record earnings, with the entire chip and AI hardware space—including Marvell, Dell, and HPE—giving back massive gains due to growing fears of a capital expenditure slowdown. When a market sector fails to rally on stellar earnings and breaks key support levels, it usually signals a broader shift in momentum where investors are locking in profits. The heavy across-the-board selling pressure indicates that money is actively rotating out of AI infrastructure names, making a short-term bet against the semiconductor sector a high-probability trade until the dust settles.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based mean-reversion/momentum strategy that enters short SOXX (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) on D1 timeframe when the ETF closes down >2% and its RSI(14) breaks below 40. Exit the position entirely if SOXX bounces and closes above its 10-day EMA, or enforce a strict 10-day maximum hold. Apply a 7% hard stop loss to protect against upside breakouts.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
AVGO · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (20) — met
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- EMA (10) below EMA (3) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — met
- Price above EMA (10) — near
MRVL · 1d
1 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (20) — near
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- EMA (10) below EMA (3) — met
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- Price above EMA (10) — met
SMH · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (20) — near
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- EMA (10) below EMA (3) — met
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — met
- Price above EMA (10) — met
SOXX · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (20) — near
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- EMA (10) below EMA (3) — met
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — met
- Price above EMA (10) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/RSI/EMA/MACD Signal Long (SOXX@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/RSI/EMA/MACD Signal Long (SMH@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/RSI/EMA/MACD Signal Long (AVGO@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/RSI/EMA/MACD Signal Long (MRVL@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (SOXX@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (SMH@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (AVGO@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (MRVL@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (SOXX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (SMH@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (AVGO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (MRVL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (SOXX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (SMH@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (AVGO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (MRVL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.9% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MRVL",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_soxx",
"name": "SMA/RSI/EMA/MACD Signal Long (SOXX@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SOXX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_smh",
"name": "SMA/RSI/EMA/MACD Signal Long (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_avgo",
"name": "SMA/RSI/EMA/MACD Signal Long (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:AVGO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRVL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRVL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRVL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRVL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRVL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRVL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mrvl",
"name": "SMA/RSI/EMA/MACD Signal Long (MRVL@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:MRVL"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_soxx",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SOXX@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SOXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_smh",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_avgo",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AVGO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRVL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRVL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mrvl",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (MRVL@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MRVL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_soxx",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (SOXX@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SOXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_smh",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_avgo",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AVGO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRVL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mrvl",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (MRVL@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MRVL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_soxx",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (SOXX@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SOXX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_smh",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_avgo",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (AVGO@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:AVGO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:MRVL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mrvl",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (MRVL@1d)",
"priority": 103,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:MRVL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4396666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.879333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.4396666666666667,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 3
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 3
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 3
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 3
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:AVGO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:MRVL",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SOXX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
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}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'TSMC's strong earnings can't save chip stocks — short the AI hardware hangover'. Thesis: The market is displaying a classic 'sell the news' reaction to TSMC's record earnings, with the entire chip and AI hardware space—including Marvell, Dell, and HPE—giving back massive gains due to growing fears of a capital expenditure slowdown. When a market sector fails to rally on stellar earnings and breaks key support levels, it usually signals a broader shift in momentum where investors are locking in profits. The heavy across-the-board selling pressure indicates that money is actively rotating out of AI infrastructure names, making a short-term bet against the semiconductor sector a high-probability trade until the dust settles.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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