Public trading strategy
Silver crashes to 8-month lows while oil surges on war fears — buy the metal dis
Created
Thesis
Silver is hitting multi-month lows at the exact moment oil is ripping higher on Middle East conflict. Normally, precious metals act as a safe haven during wars, but silver has been crushed while oil has soared 13% in a single week. This extreme divergence—where the silver-to-oil ratio is historically stretched—suggests silver is deeply oversold and due for a catch-up bounce. As geopolitical tension continues to disrupt supply chains, silver's dual role as both a safe haven and an industrial metal makes this disconnect a prime buying opportunity.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long SLV on D1 when the SLV/OIL ratio falls below its lower Bollinger Band (20-period, 2 standard deviations) and RSI(14) of SLV is below 40. Exit when the SLV/OIL ratio crosses above its 20-period simple moving average. Use a 25% trailing stop to manage downside risk.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
PSLV · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below Bollinger (20) — near
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- Price crossed above Bollinger (20) — near
SLV · 1d
0 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below Bollinger (20) — near
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- Price below Bollinger (20) — near
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- Price crossed above Bollinger (20) — near
- Price crossed above Bollinger (20) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: BB/RSI Signal Long (SLV@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: BB/RSI Signal Long (USO@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (SLV@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SLV@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (SLV@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.7% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (SLV@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Thesis time stop after 60 days (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_slv",
"name": "BB/RSI Signal Long (SLV@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SLV"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "BB/RSI Signal Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_slv",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SLV@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SLV"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_slv",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SLV@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SLV"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_slv",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (SLV@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SLV"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_uso",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.72
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.4399999999999995
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_slv",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (SLV@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SLV"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_uso",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "advanced_analysis_time_stop",
"name": "Thesis time stop after 60 days",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.72,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_slv",
"name": "BB/RSI Signal Long (SLV@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SLV"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_uso",
"name": "BB/RSI Signal Long (USO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_slv",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SLV@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SLV"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "middle",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_uso",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_slv",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SLV@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SLV"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_uso",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_slv",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (SLV@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SLV"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_uso",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.72
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.4399999999999995
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SLV",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_slv",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (SLV@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SLV"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6_uso",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "advanced_analysis_time_stop",
"name": "Thesis time stop after 60 days",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.72,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Silver crashes to 8-month lows while oil surges on war fears — buy the metal disconnect'. Thesis: Silver is hitting multi-month lows at the exact moment oil is ripping higher on Middle East conflict. Normally, precious metals act as a safe haven during wars, but silver has been crushed while oil has soared 13% in a single week. This extreme divergence—where the silver-to-oil ratio is historically stretched—suggests silver is deeply oversold and due for a catch-up bounce. As geopolitical tension continues to disrupt supply chains, silver's dual role as both a safe haven and an industrial metal makes this disconnect a prime buying opportunity.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies