Public trading strategy
TSMC crushes earnings but chip stocks sink anyway — buy the AI dip
Created
Thesis
TSMC, the world's biggest contract chipmaker, just crushed profit expectations and said the AI boom will last another three years. They even increased their spending plans to keep up with demand. Their European equipment supplier, ASML, also raised its outlook. Yet, investors are dumping semiconductor stocks anyway, pushing shares down across the globe. When an industry leader reports massive growth but its stock falls anyway, it often creates a disconnect that resolves higher once the panic subsides.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion strategy on TSMC and ASML using a 1-hour (H1) or Daily (D1) timeframe. Enter long when TSMC drops at least 3% over a 2-day period following an earnings release. Exit the trade if the price breaks below the recent 10-day low, or hold for a 5% to 10% rebound.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
ASML · 1d
4 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below Bollinger (20) — met
- Price above EMA (9) — met
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
- Price below Bollinger (20) — met
- Price above EMA (9) — met
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
- ADX (14) above 40 — far
- RSI (14) above 70 — far
TSM · 1d
2 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below Bollinger (20) — near
- Price above EMA (9) — met
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
- Price below Bollinger (20) — near
- Price above EMA (9) — met
- RSI (14) below 40 — far
- RSI (14) crossed above 40 — far
- ADX (14) above 40 — far
- RSI (14) above 70 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: BB/EMA/RSI Crossover Long (TSM@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: BB/EMA/RSI Crossover Long (ASML@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: BB/EMA/RSI Crossover Long (TSM@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: BB/EMA/RSI Crossover Long (ASML@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (TSM@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Long Entry Signal (ASML@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: ADX Threshold Exit (TSM@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: ADX Threshold Exit (ASML@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (ASML@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (ASML@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.3% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.6% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tsm",
"name": "BB/EMA/RSI Crossover Long (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_asml",
"name": "BB/EMA/RSI Crossover Long (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_tsm",
"name": "BB/EMA/RSI Crossover Long (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_asml",
"name": "BB/EMA/RSI Crossover Long (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_tsm",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_asml",
"name": "Long Entry Signal (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 70
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tsm",
"name": "ADX Threshold Exit (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 70
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_asml",
"name": "ADX Threshold Exit (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tsm",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_asml",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_tsm",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_asml",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.2894117647058825
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.578823529411765
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.2894117647058825,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tsm",
"name": "BB/EMA/RSI Crossover Long (TSM@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_asml",
"name": "BB/EMA/RSI Crossover Long (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
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},
{
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},
{
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],
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},
{
"conditions": [
{
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},
{
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],
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},
{
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},
{
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],
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},
{
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},
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}
}
],
"direction": "long",
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"id": "entry_3_asml",
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"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
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{
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"operator": "greater_than",
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},
{
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}
],
"enabled": true,
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"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
},
{
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"conditions": [
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},
{
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"right": {
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},
{
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},
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}
}
],
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},
{
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],
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},
{
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],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_asml",
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"purpose": "take_profit",
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},
{
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],
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"purpose": "stop_loss",
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},
{
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},
"field": "close",
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}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_asml",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (ASML@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
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],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
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"conditions": [
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"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
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}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
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"risk_percent": 2.2894117647058825,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'TSMC crushes earnings but chip stocks sink anyway — buy the AI dip'. Thesis: TSMC, the world's biggest contract chipmaker, just crushed profit expectations and said the AI boom will last another three years. They even increased their spending plans to keep up with demand. Their European equipment supplier, ASML, also raised its outlook. Yet, investors are dumping semiconductor stocks anyway, pushing shares down across the globe. When an industry leader reports massive growth but its stock falls anyway, it often creates a disconnect that resolves higher once the panic subsides.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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