Public trading strategy
A supply wave of $138 billion of risky buyout debt is about to hit the market, a
Created
Thesis
A supply wave of $138 billion of risky buyout debt is about to hit the market, and prices fall when supply overwhelms buyers. At the same time, Wall Street is nervous about the Treasury Secretary's expanded bond-buyback plans, signaling yields are already hard to manage. If this week's inflation reports come in hot and the Fed leans toward hiking, buyers of risky corporate debt will demand bigger discounts — widening spreads and pushing high-yield bond ETFs like HYG lower. The trade is short high-yield credit into the print and the supply wave.
Strategy approach
A supply wave of $138 billion of risky buyout debt is about to hit the market, and prices fall when supply overwhelms buyers. At the same time, Wall Street is nervous about the Treasury Secretary's expanded bond-buyback plans, signaling yields are already hard to manage. If this week's inflation reports come in hot and the Fed leans toward hiking, buyers of risky corporate debt will demand bigger discounts — widening spreads and pushing high-yield bond ETFs like HYG lower. The trade is short high-yield credit into the print and the supply wave. Decision analysis profile: near_term. Required dimensions: as_of_session, catalyst_timing, expectations_priced_in, price_volume, liquidity_spread_volatility, dilution_capital_allocation, downside, actionability.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
HYG · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below SMA (50) — near
- MACD (12,26,9) crossed below MACD (12,26,9) — near
- RSI (14) below 45 — met
- ADX (14) above 18 — met
- Price above SMA (50) — near
- RSI (14) above 55 — far
TLT · 1d
No entry condition values were published.
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Confirmed Breakdown Short (HYG@1d) (5 conditions)
- Exit: Reclaim Broken Support: Close Back Above 50-Day Average (HYG@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop at 30 Sessions (HYG@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Exhaustion: RSI Back Above 55 (HYG@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Scale Out at Next Lower Support (HYG@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.7% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.4% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 18
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_hyg_short",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_hyg",
"name": "Reclaim Broken Support: Close Back Above 50-Day Average (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_hyg",
"name": "Time Stop at 30 Sessions (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_hyg",
"name": "Exhaustion: RSI Back Above 55 (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_hyg",
"name": "Scale Out at Next Lower Support (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.7,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 18
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_hyg_short",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_hyg",
"name": "Reclaim Broken Support: Close Back Above 50-Day Average (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_hyg",
"name": "Time Stop at 30 Sessions (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_hyg",
"name": "Exhaustion: RSI Back Above 55 (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_hyg",
"name": "Scale Out at Next Lower Support (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.7,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'A supply wave of $138 billion of risky buyout debt is about to hit the market, and prices fall when supply overwhelms buyers. At the same time, Wall Street is nervous about the Treasury Secretary's expanded bond-buyback plans, signaling yields are already'. Thesis: A supply wave of $138 billion of risky buyout debt is about to hit the market, and prices fall when supply overwhelms buyers. At the same time, Wall Street is nervous about the Treasury Secretary's expanded bond-buyback plans, signaling yields are already hard to manage. If this week's inflation reports come in hot and the Fed leans toward hiking, buyers of risky corporate debt will demand bigger discounts — widening spreads and pushing high-yield bond ETFs like HYG lower. The trade is short high-yield credit into the print and the supply wave.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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