Public trading strategy
$53B buyout offer for PayPal — trade the gap between current price and deal pric
Created
Thesis
A buyout offer anchors a hard price target for PayPal shares at $60.50. When a credible buyout is announced, the target company's stock typically jumps but often stays at a slight discount to the final offer price due to the time and regulatory risk involved. If the market opens with PayPal still under $60, there is a clear, short-term profit target to close that gap.
Strategy approach
Build an intraday merger arbitrage strategy on PYPL. Condition: enter long on market open if the stock is trading at least 3% below the announced $60.50 takeover price. Exit: take profit if the price reaches $60.00, set a hard stop loss at 3% below the entry price, and force an exit at market close (no overnight hold).
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA Crossover Long (PYPL@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (PYPL@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (PYPL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (PYPL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (PYPL@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (PYPL@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA Crossover Long (PYPL@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:PYPL"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (PYPL@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (PYPL@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:PYPL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (PYPL@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:PYPL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (PYPL@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:PYPL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.519
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.038
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (PYPL@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.519,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA Crossover Long (PYPL@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:PYPL"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60.5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (PYPL@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (PYPL@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:PYPL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (PYPL@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:PYPL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (PYPL@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:PYPL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.519
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.038
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:PYPL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (PYPL@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.519,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea '$53B buyout offer for PayPal — trade the gap between current price and deal price'. Thesis: A buyout offer anchors a hard price target for PayPal shares at $60.50. When a credible buyout is announced, the target company's stock typically jumps but often stays at a slight discount to the final offer price due to the time and regulatory risk involved. If the market opens with PayPal still under $60, there is a clear, short-term profit target to close that gap.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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