Bitcoin at multi-year lows and U.S. just struck Iran — short the crypto bounce
Thesis
Bitcoin is already in freefall, hitting a 21-month low amid 'extreme fear' and massive ETF outflows. Layering a U.S. military strike on Iran on top of an existing crypto panic creates a double shock — geopolitical risk historically drives investors toward safe havens and away from speculative assets like crypto. Meanwhile, inflation topping 4% means the Fed has limited room to cut rates to rescue risk assets, unlike in previous crypto crashes. The combination of a geopolitical shock, existing momentum to the downside, and no Fed safety net suggests further downside.
Strategy approach
Build a momentum-continuation strategy that enters short BTC-USD on H4 when BTC makes a new 30-day low on the same day that VIX spikes above 20. Confirm entry when BTC closes below its prior session low. Use a 5% trailing stop and a 10-day max hold.