Public trading strategy
Bitcoin at multi-year lows and U.S. just struck Iran — short the crypto bounce
Created
Thesis
Bitcoin is already in freefall, hitting a 21-month low amid 'extreme fear' and massive ETF outflows. Layering a U.S. military strike on Iran on top of an existing crypto panic creates a double shock — geopolitical risk historically drives investors toward safe havens and away from speculative assets like crypto. Meanwhile, inflation topping 4% means the Fed has limited room to cut rates to rescue risk assets, unlike in previous crypto crashes. The combination of a geopolitical shock, existing momentum to the downside, and no Fed safety net suggests further downside.
Strategy approach
Build a momentum-continuation strategy that enters short BTC-USD on H4 when BTC makes a new 30-day low on the same day that VIX spikes above 20. Confirm entry when BTC closes below its prior session low. Use a 5% trailing stop and a 10-day max hold.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 4h
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Donchian (30) at or below 0 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Momentum (10) below 0 — met
COIN · 4h
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Donchian (30) at or below 0 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Momentum (10) below 0 — met
MSTR · 4h
1 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Donchian (30) at or below 0 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Momentum (10) below 0 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Downside Momentum Continuation Short (BTC@4h) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Trailing Stop at 5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
- Exit: Signal Exit: Close Above Resistance[2] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 30
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "momentum",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Downside Momentum Continuation Short (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Trailing Stop at 5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.174533333333334
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Signal Exit: Close Above Resistance[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.587266666666667,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "momentum",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 30
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "momentum",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Downside Momentum Continuation Short (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Trailing Stop at 5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.174533333333334
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Signal Exit: Close Above Resistance[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.587266666666667,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Bitcoin at multi-year lows and U.S. just struck Iran — short the crypto bounce'. Thesis: Bitcoin is already in freefall, hitting a 21-month low amid 'extreme fear' and massive ETF outflows. Layering a U.S. military strike on Iran on top of an existing crypto panic creates a double shock — geopolitical risk historically drives investors toward safe havens and away from speculative assets like crypto. Meanwhile, inflation topping 4% means the Fed has limited room to cut rates to rescue risk assets, unlike in previous crypto crashes. The combination of a geopolitical shock, existing momentum to the downside, and no Fed safety net suggests further downside.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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