Public trading strategy
Inflation cools, rate hike fears vanish — Bitcoin breaks out toward $65K
Created
Thesis
For weeks, traders worried that a strong economy and sticky prices would force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which tends to pull money away from riskier assets like Bitcoin. However, the latest inflation report showed the biggest monthly drop in prices since 2020. This surprising cooldown instantly gutted the threat of higher rates, giving crypto investors the green light to buy back in. With the rate hike narrative broken for now, Bitcoin has a clear path to recover recent losses as market confidence returns.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based momentum strategy that enters long BTCUSD on the H4 timeframe when price closes above its 20-period high after a positive macroeconomic surprise (CPI printing lower than expectations). Exit if price closes below the 20-period low, or hold for a maximum of 10 days. ADVANCED ANALYSIS RESEARCH EVIDENCE {"fundamentals_xbrl":{"coverage":{"reasons":{},"requested":[],"with_series":[]},"etf_profiles":[],"latest_snapshots":[{"capex":"8212000","cash":"2301470000","company_name":"Strategy…
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 4h
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- RSI (14) above 50 — far
- ADX (14) below 20 — far
MSTR · 4h
2 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- RSI (14) above 50 — met
- ADX (14) below 20 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Momentum Breakout Long (BTC@4h) (3 conditions)
- Exit: ADX Threshold Exit (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop: 10 Days (60 bars @ 4h) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Momentum Breakout Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "ADX Threshold Exit (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5205
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.041
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "Time Stop: 10 Days (60 bars @ 4h)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5205,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Momentum Breakout Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "ADX Threshold Exit (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5205
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.041
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "Time Stop: 10 Days (60 bars @ 4h)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5205,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Inflation cools, rate hike fears vanish — Bitcoin breaks out toward $65K'. Thesis: For weeks, traders worried that a strong economy and sticky prices would force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which tends to pull money away from riskier assets like Bitcoin. However, the latest inflation report showed the biggest monthly drop in prices since 2020. This surprising cooldown instantly gutted the threat of higher rates, giving crypto investors the green light to buy back in. With the rate hike narrative broken for now, Bitcoin has a clear path to recover recent losses as market confidence returns.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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