Public trading strategy
This inflation report had a split personality: energy costs pushed the headline
Created
Thesis
This inflation report had a split personality: energy costs pushed the headline number up, but the core measure — which the Fed watches more closely — continued to ease, and analysts highlighted exactly that divergence. The 10-year Treasury yield pulling back after the print shows bond investors believe the underlying inflation pressure is fading even with oil above $100. When yields fall, long-term bond prices rise, so the longest-duration Treasury ETFs get the biggest lift. The published rate-hike panic trades have pushed duration positioning to an extreme, setting up a catch-up rally in bonds if core cooling continues.
Strategy approach
This inflation report had a split personality: energy costs pushed the headline number up, but the core measure — which the Fed watches more closely — continued to ease, and analysts highlighted exactly that divergence. The 10-year Treasury yield pulling back after the print shows bond investors believe the underlying inflation pressure is fading even with oil above $100. When yields fall, long-term bond prices rise, so the longest-duration Treasury ETFs get the biggest lift. The published rate-hike panic trades have pushed duration positioning to an extreme, setting up a catch-up rally in bonds if core cooling continues. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage,…
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
IEF · 1d
1 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- EMA (50) below Bollinger (20) — near
- Price at or above EMA (50) — near
- Price below EMA (50) — met
- RSI (14) crossed below 50 — far
- RSI (14) above 55 — far
TLT · 1d
1 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- EMA (50) below Bollinger (20) — near
- Price at or above EMA (50) — near
- Price below EMA (50) — met
- RSI (14) crossed below 50 — far
- RSI (14) above 55 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Resistance-Rally Fade Short (TLT@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Resistance-Rally Fade Short (IEF@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (IEF@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Near Support[1] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Support[1] (IEF@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Above Resistance[2] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Above Resistance[2] (IEF@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.1% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "Resistance-Rally Fade Short (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ief",
"name": "Resistance-Rally Fade Short (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tlt",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ief",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tlt",
"name": "TP: Near Support[1] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_ief",
"name": "TP: Near Support[1] (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_tlt",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[2] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_ief",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[2] (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.56
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.12
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.1%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.56,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "Resistance-Rally Fade Short (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ief",
"name": "Resistance-Rally Fade Short (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tlt",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 55
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ief",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tlt",
"name": "TP: Near Support[1] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_ief",
"name": "TP: Near Support[1] (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_tlt",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[2] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:IEF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_ief",
"name": "SL: Above Resistance[2] (IEF@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:IEF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.56
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.12
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.1%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.56,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'This inflation report had a split personality: energy costs pushed the headline number up, but the core measure — which the Fed watches more closely — continued to ease, and analysts highlighted exactly that divergence. The 10-year Treasury yield pulling '. Thesis: This inflation report had a split personality: energy costs pushed the headline number up, but the core measure — which the Fed watches more closely — continued to ease, and analysts highlighted exactly that divergence. The 10-year Treasury yield pulling back after the print shows bond investors believe the underlying inflation pressure is fading even with oil above $100. When yields fall, long-term bond prices rise, so the longest-duration Treasury ETFs get the biggest lift. The published rate-hike panic trades have pushed duration positioning to an extreme, setting up a catch-up rally in bonds if core cooling continues.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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