Public trading strategy
Yen short bets hit nine-year high — contrarian setup as peace deal revives carry
Created
Thesis
When everyone piles onto the same trade, it becomes crowded and fragile. Bets against the yen are at a nine-year high, which means the trade is extremely crowded. If the Bank of Japan surprises with a rate hike or if anything spooks the market, those traders will rush to unwind their positions, causing the yen to spike higher suddenly. This is a contrarian play — betting that the crowd is too aggressive right before a potential turning point.
Strategy approach
Build a short strategy on USDJPY using 4H timeframe. Enter short when the pair makes a new 5-day high and RSI(14) on the daily timeframe exceeds 75. Set a stop loss 1.5% above entry and exit on a 10-day hold. This is a counter-trend fade anticipating a Bank of Japan rate hike surprise.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Overbought DONCHIAN/RSI Long (FXY@4h) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Overbought DONCHIAN/RSI Long (EWJ@4h) (2 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (FXY@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (EWJ@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (FXY@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (EWJ@4h) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "FXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "EWJ",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "EWJ",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "FXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "FXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 75
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_fxy",
"name": "Overbought DONCHIAN/RSI Long (FXY@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "FXY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "EWJ",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "EWJ",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 75
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ewj",
"name": "Overbought DONCHIAN/RSI Long (EWJ@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "EWJ"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_fxy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (FXY@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "FXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ewj",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (EWJ@4h)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "EWJ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_fxy",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (FXY@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "FXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_ewj",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (EWJ@4h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "EWJ"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "FXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "EWJ",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "EWJ",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "FXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "FXY",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 75
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_fxy",
"name": "Overbought DONCHIAN/RSI Long (FXY@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "FXY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "EWJ",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "EWJ",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 75
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ewj",
"name": "Overbought DONCHIAN/RSI Long (EWJ@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "EWJ"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_fxy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (FXY@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "FXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ewj",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (EWJ@4h)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "EWJ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_fxy",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (FXY@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "FXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_ewj",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (EWJ@4h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "EWJ"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Yen short bets hit nine-year high — contrarian setup as peace deal revives carry trade'. Thesis: When everyone piles onto the same trade, it becomes crowded and fragile. Bets against the yen are at a nine-year high, which means the trade is extremely crowded. If the Bank of Japan surprises with a rate hike or if anything spooks the market, those traders will rush to unwind their positions, causing the yen to spike higher suddenly. This is a contrarian play — betting that the crowd is too aggressive right before a potential turning point.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies