Public trading strategy
Traders betting on a July rate hike — short the broad market ahead of inflation
Created
Thesis
When the market starts expecting higher interest rates, it usually puts heavy downward pressure on growth stocks because future profits look less valuable. Bond traders are aggressively pricing in a rate hike before the official inflation numbers even drop. If the data confirms these fears, tech and broad market indices could face an immediate sell-off as investors adjust to a higher-rate reality.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short QQQ on D1 when the 2-year Treasury yield rises 5 basis points or more in a single session. Exit the position after 5 trading days or if the 2-year yield drops 10 basis points from entry, whichever comes first.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
QQQ · 1d
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (50) — met
- ROC (1) above 0.4 — far
- RSI (14) below 36 — far
SPY · 1d
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (50) — near
- ROC (1) above 0.4 — met
- RSI (14) below 36 — far
TLT · 1d
1 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (50) — met
- ROC (1) above 0.4 — near
- RSI (14) below 36 — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/ROC Signal Long (QQQ@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/ROC Signal Long (SPY@1d) (2 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/ROC Signal Long (TLT@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[3] (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[3] (SPY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[3] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 3.2% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 6.5% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.4
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_qqq",
"name": "SMA/ROC Signal Long (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.4
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_spy",
"name": "SMA/ROC Signal Long (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.4
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "SMA/ROC Signal Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 36
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_qqq",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 36
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_spy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 36
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tlt",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_qqq",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_spy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tlt",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 3,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_qqq",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[3] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 3,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_spy",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[3] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 3,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_tlt",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[3] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3.23
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.2%",
"priority": 103,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 6.46
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 6.5%",
"priority": 104,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 30,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 3,
"risk_percent": 3.23,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.4
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_qqq",
"name": "SMA/ROC Signal Long (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.4
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_spy",
"name": "SMA/ROC Signal Long (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.4
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "SMA/ROC Signal Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 36
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_qqq",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 36
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_spy",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 36
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tlt",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_qqq",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_spy",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tlt",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 3,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_qqq",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[3] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 3,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_spy",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[3] (SPY@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SPY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 3,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_tlt",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[3] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3.23
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.2%",
"priority": 103,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 6.46
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 6.5%",
"priority": 104,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 30,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 3,
"risk_percent": 3.23,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Traders betting on a July rate hike — short the broad market ahead of inflation data'. Thesis: When the market starts expecting higher interest rates, it usually puts heavy downward pressure on growth stocks because future profits look less valuable. Bond traders are aggressively pricing in a rate hike before the official inflation numbers even drop. If the data confirms these fears, tech and broad market indices could face an immediate sell-off as investors adjust to a higher-rate reality.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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