Public trading strategy
Large institutional investors have built record short positions against bonds, b
Created
Thesis
Large institutional investors have built record short positions against bonds, betting inflation will stay hot and force the Fed to keep rates elevated. Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is the catalyst everyone is waiting for — if inflation runs hotter than expected, it validates those massive bets and sparks a cascade of selling in the bond market. A higher cost of living also eats into corporate profits and consumer spending, meaning a bad inflation number would hit both safe-haven bonds and riskier assets simultaneously.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
HYG · 1d
0 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below Donchian (20) — near
- OBV below Price — unknown
- EMA (9) below EMA (21) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- Price below Donchian (20) — near
- OBV below Price — unknown
- EMA (9) below EMA (21) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- Price above Donchian (20) — met
- RSI (14) below 30 — far
- Price below Bollinger (20) — near
TLT · 1d
4 of 8 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below Donchian (20) — met
- OBV below Price — unknown
- EMA (9) below EMA (21) — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- Price below Donchian (20) — met
- OBV below Price — unknown
- EMA (9) below EMA (21) — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- Price above Donchian (20) — near
- RSI (14) below 30 — far
- Price below Bollinger (20) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/OBV/EMA/ADX Signal Long (TLT@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/OBV/EMA/ADX Signal Long (HYG@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/OBV/EMA/ADX Signal Long (TLT@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/OBV/EMA/ADX Signal Long (HYG@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (HYG@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (TLT@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (HYG@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (HYG@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (TLT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (HYG@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.3% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "DONCHIAN/OBV/EMA/ADX Signal Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_hyg",
"name": "DONCHIAN/OBV/EMA/ADX Signal Long (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_tlt",
"name": "DONCHIAN/OBV/EMA/ADX Signal Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_hyg",
"name": "DONCHIAN/OBV/EMA/ADX Signal Long (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_tlt",
"name": "Crossover Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_hyg",
"name": "Crossover Long (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tlt",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_hyg",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_tlt",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_hyg",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_tlt",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_hyg",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (HYG@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:HYG"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.6466666666666665
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.293333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2.6466666666666665,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_tlt",
"name": "DONCHIAN/OBV/EMA/ADX Signal Long (TLT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:HYG",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
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{
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{
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],
"exit_rules": [
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{
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"operator": "less_than",
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},
{
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},
{
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],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_tlt",
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"target_symbol": "STOCK:TLT"
},
{
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{
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},
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},
{
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],
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{
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"purpose": "stop_loss",
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{
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"conditions": [
{
"left": {
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"enabled": true,
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},
{
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],
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"name": "Take Profit at 5.3%",
"priority": 100,
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],
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"method": {
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"risk_percent": 2.6466666666666665,
"type": "fixed_risk"
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},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Large institutional investors have built record short positions against bonds, betting inflation will stay hot and force the Fed to keep rates elevated. Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is the catalyst everyone is waiting for — if inflation r'. Thesis: Large institutional investors have built record short positions against bonds, betting inflation will stay hot and force the Fed to keep rates elevated. Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is the catalyst everyone is waiting for — if inflation runs hotter than expected, it validates those massive bets and sparks a cascade of selling in the bond market. A higher cost of living also eats into corporate profits and consumer spending, meaning a bad inflation number would hit both safe-haven bonds and riskier assets simultaneously.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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