Public trading strategy
LLY Relative-Value Pair Strategy
Created
Thesis
Novo's poorly received investor day and its need to pay over $1 billion to license outside technology are signs the company is losing its innovation edge exactly when Lilly is consolidating leadership in obesity drugs. A relative-value pair trade isolates that competitive gap instead of betting on the sector's direction. Because both stocks share the same drug-market exposure, the trade is largely hedged against broad biotech swings and profits from Lilly simply continuing to outperform a struggling Novo.
Strategy approach
Novo's poorly received investor day and its need to pay over $1 billion to license outside technology are signs the company is losing its innovation edge exactly when Lilly is consolidating leadership in obesity drugs. A relative-value pair trade isolates that competitive gap instead of betting on the sector's direction. Because both stocks share the same drug-market exposure, the trade is largely hedged against broad biotech swings and profits from Lilly simply continuing to outperform a struggling Novo. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat, catalysts, counterevidence, invalidation.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
LLY · 1d
3 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price below EMA (50) — near
- RSI (14) above 50 — met
- Price above EMA (50) — met
- Price below EMA (50) — near
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- Price below EMA (50) — near
- Price above EMA (50) — met
NVO · 1d
3 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above EMA (50) — far
- Price below EMA (50) — met
- RSI (14) above 50 — far
- Price above EMA (50) — far
- Price below EMA (50) — met
- RSI (14) below 50 — met
- Price below EMA (50) — met
- Price above EMA (50) — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: LLY Relative-Strength Fade Short (spread confirmation, contrarian) (3 conditions)
- Entry: NVO Relative-Weakness Fade Long (spread confirmation, contrarian) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Fade Invalidation: LLY Below Its EMA50 (1 condition)
- Exit: Fade Invalidation: NVO Above Its EMA50 (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop at 90 Bars (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Support[2] (LLY short leg cover) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (NVO long leg) (1 condition)
- Exit: Pair Stop Loss at 1.9% (volatility-adjusted) (1 condition)
- Exit: Pair Take Profit at 3.7% (volatility-adjusted) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "LLY Relative-Strength Fade Short (spread confirmation, contrarian)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:LLY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2",
"name": "NVO Relative-Weakness Fade Long (spread confirmation, contrarian)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:NVO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Fade Invalidation: LLY Below Its EMA50",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Fade Invalidation: NVO Above Its EMA50",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time Stop at 90 Bars",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Near Support[2] (LLY short leg cover)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:LLY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (NVO long leg)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.86
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Pair Stop Loss at 1.9% (volatility-adjusted)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3.72
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "Pair Take Profit at 3.7% (volatility-adjusted)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 20,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 1.86,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "LLY Relative-Strength Fade Short (spread confirmation, contrarian)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:LLY"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2",
"name": "NVO Relative-Weakness Fade Long (spread confirmation, contrarian)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:NVO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Fade Invalidation: LLY Below Its EMA50",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Fade Invalidation: NVO Above Its EMA50",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time Stop at 90 Bars",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LLY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Near Support[2] (LLY short leg cover)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:LLY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (NVO long leg)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1.86
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Pair Stop Loss at 1.9% (volatility-adjusted)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3.72
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "Pair Take Profit at 3.7% (volatility-adjusted)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 20,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 1.86,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Novo's poorly received investor day and its need to pay over $1 billion to license outside technology are signs the company is losing its innovation edge exactly when Lilly is consolidating leadership in obesity drugs. A relative-value pair trade isolates'. Thesis: Novo's poorly received investor day and its need to pay over $1 billion to license outside technology are signs the company is losing its innovation edge exactly when Lilly is consolidating leadership in obesity drugs. A relative-value pair trade isolates that competitive gap instead of betting on the sector's direction. Because both stocks share the same drug-market exposure, the trade is largely hedged against broad biotech swings and profits from Lilly simply continuing to outperform a struggling Novo.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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