Public trading strategy
Oil at $100 plus stagflation chatter and a 40-year rate warning — load up on gol
Created
Thesis
Three separate threats are converging into a textbook stagflation setup: oil at $100 from geopolitical supply shocks, a deepening tech selloff dragging the whole market lower, and a structural warning from J.P. Morgan that the demographic tailwinds that suppressed inflation and rates for 40 years are reversing. When investors fear both stagnant growth and rising prices, gold is the classic safe-haven bid — it holds purchasing power when financial assets and currencies simultaneously lose theirs. The combination of an immediate oil-shock catalyst with a multi-decade structural inflation warning makes this more than a short-term trade.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long GLD on D1 when WTI crude oil (USO) closes above $98/barrel AND SPY closes down >1% on the same session, signaling an oil-shock-driven risk-off rotation. Add a co-condition: enter only if the 10-year Treasury yield (TLT proxy via inverse correlation) has risen over the prior 10 sessions. Exit on a 10% trailing stop or after a 21-day max hold. This captures the stagflation hedge dynamic where rising commodities pressure equities while structural inflation fears drive gold bid.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
GDX · 1d
0 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above 98 — far
- ROC (1) below -1 — far
- ROC (10) below 0 — far
- ROC (1) above 0 — near
- EMA (50) above EMA (200) — near
- ADX (14) above 25 — far
- RSI (14) above 75 — far
GLD · 1d
2 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above 98 — met
- ROC (1) below -1 — far
- ROC (10) below 0 — far
- ROC (1) above 0 — met
- EMA (50) above EMA (200) — near
- ADX (14) above 25 — far
- RSI (14) above 75 — far
NEM · 1d
1 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above 98 — near
- ROC (1) below -1 — met
- ROC (10) below 0 — far
- ROC (1) above 0 — far
- EMA (50) above EMA (200) — near
- ADX (14) above 25 — far
- RSI (14) above 75 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Contrarian Oil-Shock Risk-Off Fade Short (GLD@1d) (6 conditions)
- Entry: Contrarian Oil-Shock Risk-Off Fade Short (GDX@1d) (6 conditions)
- Entry: Contrarian Oil-Shock Risk-Off Fade Short (NEM@1d) (6 conditions)
- Exit: Overbought RSI Exhaustion Cover (GLD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Overbought RSI Exhaustion Cover (GDX@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Overbought RSI Exhaustion Cover (NEM@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Contrarian Stop at 10% (1 condition)
- Exit: Max Hold 21 Days (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:GDX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:NEM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 98
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_gld",
"name": "Contrarian Oil-Shock Risk-Off Fade Short (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:GLD"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 98
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GDX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GDX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GDX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GDX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_gdx",
"name": "Contrarian Oil-Shock Risk-Off Fade Short (GDX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:GDX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 98
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NEM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NEM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NEM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NEM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_nem",
"name": "Contrarian Oil-Shock Risk-Off Fade Short (NEM@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:NEM"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 75
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_gld",
"name": "Overbought RSI Exhaustion Cover (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:GLD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GDX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 75
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_gdx",
"name": "Overbought RSI Exhaustion Cover (GDX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:GDX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NEM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 75
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_nem",
"name": "Overbought RSI Exhaustion Cover (NEM@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NEM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Contrarian Stop at 10%",
"priority": 50,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Max Hold 21 Days",
"priority": 51,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 16.666666666666668,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.3819285714285714,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:GDX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:NEM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 98
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_gld",
"name": "Contrarian Oil-Shock Risk-Off Fade Short (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:GLD"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 98
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GDX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GDX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GDX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GDX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_gdx",
"name": "Contrarian Oil-Shock Risk-Off Fade Short (GDX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:GDX"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 98
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SPY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:TLT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NEM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NEM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NEM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NEM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_nem",
"name": "Contrarian Oil-Shock Risk-Off Fade Short (NEM@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:NEM"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GLD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 75
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_gld",
"name": "Overbought RSI Exhaustion Cover (GLD@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:GLD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:GDX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 75
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_gdx",
"name": "Overbought RSI Exhaustion Cover (GDX@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:GDX"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NEM",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 75
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_nem",
"name": "Overbought RSI Exhaustion Cover (NEM@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NEM"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Contrarian Stop at 10%",
"priority": 50,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Max Hold 21 Days",
"priority": 51,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 16.666666666666668,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.3819285714285714,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Oil at $100 plus stagflation chatter and a 40-year rate warning — load up on gold as the ultimate hedge'. Thesis: Three separate threats are converging into a textbook stagflation setup: oil at $100 from geopolitical supply shocks, a deepening tech selloff dragging the whole market lower, and a structural warning from J.P. Morgan that the demographic tailwinds that suppressed inflation and rates for 40 years are reversing. When investors fear both stagnant growth and rising prices, gold is the classic safe-haven bid — it holds purchasing power when financial assets and currencies simultaneously lose theirs. The combination of an immediate oil-shock catalyst with a multi-decade structural inflation warning makes this more than a short-term trade.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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