Oil prices cooling as Kuwait bypasses war bottlenecks — fade the energy spike
Thesis
The Strait of Hormuz has been a massive bottleneck keeping oil prices artificially high due to war fears. Kuwait breaking ranks to sell directly to Asia shows that producers are finding workarounds to get oil to market. As more oil floods the system, the recent price spikes driven by war panic are likely to deflate. Betting on oil prices coming down is a smart contrarian play as geopolitical fears start to fade into actual supply increases.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion strategy for USO (United States Oil Fund) on the 4-hour (H4) timeframe. Look to enter a short position when the price touches the upper Bollinger Band (20, 2) and the Stochastic Oscillator is above 80. Exit when the price reaches the middle Bollinger Band (20-period moving average) or if it breaks above the upper band by 2%.