Public trading strategy
Crypto just had its worst week since FTX — watch for a relief bounce on Ethereum
Created
Thesis
When an asset drops this far this fast, it usually triggers a short-term bounce as the sellers exhaust themselves and bargain hunters step in. The panic here is driven by forced liquidations, not necessarily a change in the underlying technology. Looking for a quick rebound trade on Ethereum makes sense once the intense selling pressure cools off. This is a bounce play, not a long-term hold, because the overall trend is still clearly downward.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion long strategy for ETHUSDT on the 4-hour timeframe. Entry conditions require the 14-day RSI to be below 25 (extreme oversold) and the price to be at least 20% below the 20-day moving average. Exit when RSI crosses above 60 or after 10 trading days. Use a tight 5% stop loss to protect against further downside.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Oversold RSI/MACD/SMA Crossover Long (ETH@4h) (6 conditions)
- Entry: Oversold RSI/MACD/SMA Crossover Long (BTC@4h) (6 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (ETH@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ETH@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (ETH@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "Oversold RSI/MACD/SMA Crossover Long (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "Oversold RSI/MACD/SMA Crossover Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_eth",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_btc",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_eth",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_btc",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "Oversold RSI/MACD/SMA Crossover Long (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "line",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "signal",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "Oversold RSI/MACD/SMA Crossover Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_eth",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_btc",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 61.8% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_eth",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_btc",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Crypto just had its worst week since FTX — watch for a relief bounce on Ethereum'. Thesis: When an asset drops this far this fast, it usually triggers a short-term bounce as the sellers exhaust themselves and bargain hunters step in. The panic here is driven by forced liquidations, not necessarily a change in the underlying technology. Looking for a quick rebound trade on Ethereum makes sense once the intense selling pressure cools off. This is a bounce play, not a long-term hold, because the overall trend is still clearly downward.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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