Public trading strategy
Home sales at a 14-month low show housing already cracking under today's borrowi
Created
Thesis
Home sales at a 14-month low show housing already cracking under today's borrowing costs, and the hot inflation print strengthens the case for an actual rate hike rather than just higher yields. Each new leg higher in rates directly raises mortgage costs, choking off homebuyer demand further. Builders and housing-linked stocks are levered to that demand, so they tend to underperform the broader market when rate expectations rise. That makes housing one of the clearest shorts in an environment where almost everything else is contested.
Strategy approach
Home sales at a 14-month low show housing already cracking under today's borrowing costs, and the hot inflation print strengthens the case for an actual rate hike rather than just higher yields. Each new leg higher in rates directly raises mortgage costs, choking off homebuyer demand further. Builders and housing-linked stocks are levered to that demand, so they tend to underperform the broader market when rate expectations rise. That makes housing one of the clearest shorts in an environment where almost everything else is contested. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat, catalysts, counterevidence, invalidation.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
DHI · 1d
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (50) — met
- SMA (20) below SMA (50) — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- Price below SMA (50) — met
ITB · 1d
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (50) — met
- SMA (20) below SMA (50) — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- Price below SMA (50) — met
LEN · 1d
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (50) — met
- SMA (20) below SMA (50) — met
- ATR (14) above 0.5 — unknown
- Price below SMA (50) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Contrarian Long on Confirmed Breakdown (DHI@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Contrarian Long on Confirmed Breakdown (ITB@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Contrarian Long on Confirmed Breakdown (LEN@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Time Stop at 90 Bars (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Break Above Resistance[2] (DHI@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Break Above Resistance[2] (ITB@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Break Above Resistance[2] (LEN@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Break Below the 50-Day Average (DHI@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Break Below the 50-Day Average (ITB@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Break Below the 50-Day Average (LEN@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_dhi",
"name": "Contrarian Long on Confirmed Breakdown (DHI@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DHI"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_itb",
"name": "Contrarian Long on Confirmed Breakdown (ITB@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ITB"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_len",
"name": "Contrarian Long on Confirmed Breakdown (LEN@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:LEN"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Time Stop at 90 Bars",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_dhi",
"name": "TP: Break Above Resistance[2] (DHI@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:DHI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_itb",
"name": "TP: Break Above Resistance[2] (ITB@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ITB"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_len",
"name": "TP: Break Above Resistance[2] (LEN@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:LEN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_dhi",
"name": "Invalidation: Break Below the 50-Day Average (DHI@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:DHI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_itb",
"name": "Invalidation: Break Below the 50-Day Average (ITB@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ITB"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_len",
"name": "Invalidation: Break Below the 50-Day Average (LEN@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:LEN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_dhi",
"name": "Contrarian Long on Confirmed Breakdown (DHI@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DHI"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_itb",
"name": "Contrarian Long on Confirmed Breakdown (ITB@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:ITB"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_len",
"name": "Contrarian Long on Confirmed Breakdown (LEN@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:LEN"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Time Stop at 90 Bars",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_dhi",
"name": "TP: Break Above Resistance[2] (DHI@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:DHI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_itb",
"name": "TP: Break Above Resistance[2] (ITB@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ITB"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_len",
"name": "TP: Break Above Resistance[2] (LEN@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:LEN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_dhi",
"name": "Invalidation: Break Below the 50-Day Average (DHI@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:DHI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:ITB",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_itb",
"name": "Invalidation: Break Below the 50-Day Average (ITB@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:ITB"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:LEN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_len",
"name": "Invalidation: Break Below the 50-Day Average (LEN@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:LEN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.5,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Home sales at a 14-month low show housing already cracking under today's borrowing costs, and the hot inflation print strengthens the case for an actual rate hike rather than just higher yields. Each new leg higher in rates directly raises mortgage costs,'. Thesis: Home sales at a 14-month low show housing already cracking under today's borrowing costs, and the hot inflation print strengthens the case for an actual rate hike rather than just higher yields. Each new leg higher in rates directly raises mortgage costs, choking off homebuyer demand further. Builders and housing-linked stocks are levered to that demand, so they tend to underperform the broader market when rate expectations rise. That makes housing one of the clearest shorts in an environment where almost everything else is contested.
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- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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