Public trading strategy
Bitcoin bleeding billions as ETF investors flee and bears pile in — short Bitcoi
Created
Thesis
The combination of record $4B monthly ETF outflows and a one-year high in put-call ratio shows both institutional and options traders are positioning for a Bitcoin drop below $55K. The $1.8B weekly outflow article confirms the selling pressure is accelerating, not easing. When the world's largest Bitcoin investment vehicles are bleeding assets under management at a record pace, it removes the primary mechanism that has propped up prices. Bears are clearly preparing for a leg down — the question is whether $60K support holds, and the weight of evidence says it likely won't.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based short strategy on BTCUSD using D1 timeframe. Enter short when daily close is below $60,000 and the 14-day average volume of BITO outflows exceeds $200M (proxy: IBIT daily volume drop >20% from 20-day average). Exit if BTC closes above $62,000. Use a 5% stop loss above entry, max hold 14 days.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BITO · 1d
1 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below 60000 — met
- Price below SMA (20) — near
- ROC (12) below 0 — far
- Price above 62000 — far
BTC · 1d
0 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below 60000 — far
- Price below SMA (20) — near
- ROC (12) below 0 — near
- Price above 62000 — met
IBIT · 1d
1 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below 60000 — met
- Price below SMA (20) — far
- ROC (12) below 0 — far
- Price above 62000 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Support Break Downside Momentum Short (BTC@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop at 14 Days (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60000
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Support Break Downside Momentum Short (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 62000
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 14
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Time Stop at 14 Days",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.577733333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"multiplier": 3,
"name": "supertrend",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 12
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60000
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 12
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Support Break Downside Momentum Short (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 62000
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 14
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Time Stop at 14 Days",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.577733333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Bitcoin bleeding billions as ETF investors flee and bears pile in — short Bitcoin below $60K'. Thesis: The combination of record $4B monthly ETF outflows and a one-year high in put-call ratio shows both institutional and options traders are positioning for a Bitcoin drop below $55K. The $1.8B weekly outflow article confirms the selling pressure is accelerating, not easing. When the world's largest Bitcoin investment vehicles are bleeding assets under management at a record pace, it removes the primary mechanism that has propped up prices. Bears are clearly preparing for a leg down — the question is whether $60K support holds, and the weight of evidence says it likely won't.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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