Public trading strategy
Iran peace deal kills the oil price spike — short oil and bet against the energy
Thesis
The peace agreement immediately removes the 'fear premium' that was keeping oil prices elevated during the conflict. With the Strait of Hormuz reopening, supply chain disruptions ease and oil flows normalize, which should keep pressure on energy prices. Oil majors like Exxon and Chevron typically move in lockstep with crude prices, making them vulnerable to further downside if the deal holds. This trade captures the momentum of falling oil prices as markets reprice to a peaceful baseline.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion strategy that enters short USOIL on H4 when price gaps down > 3% at open and RSI(14) < 35. Set a 2% fixed stop loss and a 5% take profit target. Max hold 10 days.