Iran peace deal kills the oil price spike — short oil and bet against the energy
Created
Thesis
The peace agreement immediately removes the 'fear premium' that was keeping oil prices elevated during the conflict. With the Strait of Hormuz reopening, supply chain disruptions ease and oil flows normalize, which should keep pressure on energy prices. Oil majors like Exxon and Chevron typically move in lockstep with crude prices, making them vulnerable to further downside if the deal holds. This trade captures the momentum of falling oil prices as markets reprice to a peaceful baseline.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion strategy that enters short USOIL on H4 when price gaps down > 3% at open and RSI(14) < 35. Set a 2% fixed stop loss and a 5% take profit target. Max hold 10 days.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Oversold RSI Short (USO@4h) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "open",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 35
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Oversold RSI Short (USO@4h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "open",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "USO",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 35
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Oversold RSI Short (USO@4h)",
"priority": 1
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Iran peace deal kills the oil price spike — short oil and bet against the energy giants'. Thesis: The peace agreement immediately removes the 'fear premium' that was keeping oil prices elevated during the conflict. With the Strait of Hormuz reopening, supply chain disruptions ease and oil flows normalize, which should keep pressure on energy prices. Oil majors like Exxon and Chevron typically move in lockstep with crude prices, making them vulnerable to further downside if the deal holds. This trade captures the momentum of falling oil prices as markets reprice to a peaceful baseline.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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