Public trading strategy
Bird flu lockdowns crush chicken stocks — short the poultry producers
Thesis
Bird flu outbreaks cause immediate panic in the food supply chain. The 14% drop in Inghams shows investors are terrified that the lockdowns will disrupt sales and lead to mass culling of chickens. Because it takes time to contain an outbreak, the uncertainty and fear often push stock prices even lower in the days following the initial news, creating an opportunity to bet against the sector.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short ING.AX (or related poultry ETF) on the daily timeframe when the price breaks below the previous day's low. Exit conditions: a 2-day bounce of more than 4% from the entry price, or a 7% profit target, or a 4% stop loss. Max hold 10 trading days.