Public trading strategy
BTC Macro-Driven Short with Confirmation Gate Strategy
Created
Thesis
Bitcoin's rally was built on cheap-money expectations, and those are evaporating: traders now see multiple rate hikes ahead, and the surging dollar and bond yields are dragging bitcoin back under $84,000. When government bonds pay 5%+ with near-zero risk, speculative assets lose their shine, and the recent slide shows that rotation is underway. Until yields stop making new multi-decade highs, rallies in bitcoin are more likely to be sold than sustained. A short bias with a hard stop above the $87K–88K resistance area captures the downward pressure while capping damage if the rate narrative flips.
Strategy approach
Bitcoin's rally was built on cheap-money expectations, and those are evaporating: traders now see multiple rate hikes ahead, and the surging dollar and bond yields are dragging bitcoin back under $84,000. When government bonds pay 5%+ with near-zero risk, speculative assets lose their shine, and the recent slide shows that rotation is underway. Until yields stop making new multi-decade highs, rallies in bitcoin are more likely to be sold than sustained. A short bias with a hard stop above the $87K–88K resistance area captures the downward pressure while capping damage if the rate narrative flips. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat,…
Markets and timeframes
BTC1D
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 1d
1 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price at or above 87000 — near
- Price below 87000 — met
- RSI (14) below 60 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- Price below 87000 — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Contrarian Long on Failed Rejection at $87K-$88K (BTC@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Invalidation: Close Below $87K After Entry (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop at 60 Days (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Break Above Resistance[1] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Trailing Stop at Support[1] (BTC@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.9% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 87000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 87000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Contrarian Long on Failed Rejection at $87K-$88K (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 87000
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Invalidation: Close Below $87K After Entry (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Time Stop at 60 Days (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Break Above Resistance[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Trailing Stop at Support[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.455
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.91
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.455,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 87000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 87000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Contrarian Long on Failed Rejection at $87K-$88K (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 87000
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Invalidation: Close Below $87K After Entry (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Time Stop at 60 Days (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "TP: Break Above Resistance[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Trailing Stop at Support[1] (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.455
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.91
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.455,
"support_stop_rank": 1,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Bitcoin's rally was built on cheap-money expectations, and those are evaporating: traders now see multiple rate hikes ahead, and the surging dollar and bond yields are dragging bitcoin back under $84,000. When government bonds pay 5%+ with near-zero risk,'. Thesis: Bitcoin's rally was built on cheap-money expectations, and those are evaporating: traders now see multiple rate hikes ahead, and the surging dollar and bond yields are dragging bitcoin back under $84,000. When government bonds pay 5%+ with near-zero risk, speculative assets lose their shine, and the recent slide shows that rotation is underway. Until yields stop making new multi-decade highs, rallies in bitcoin are more likely to be sold than sustained. A short bias with a hard stop above the $87K–88K resistance area captures the downward pressure while capping damage if the rate narrative flips.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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