Public trading strategy
Yen near 165 as Japan threatens intervention — fade the weakness for a snap-back
Created
Thesis
The yen is sitting near 165 to the dollar after its worst week in months, pushed down by clear warnings that the Fed will hold interest rates steady through 2026. Normally, higher U.S. rates attract money out of Japan and weaken the yen. But at these extreme lows, Japan's finance ministry is loudly warning they will 'take decisive action' to support their currency. When a central bank telegraphs direct market intervention, short-sellers often rush for the exits to lock in profits, causing a sharp, sudden bounce in the currency. Buying yen here is a contrarian bet that the government's threat will trigger that squeeze before any further weakness sets in.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy on USDJPY that enters long when USDJPY prints within 0.5% of 165.00, targeting a snap-back mean-reversion move. Exit the trade if USDJPY appreciates an additional 0.5% to 165.85 (hard stop). Take profit if the pair reverses down to 163.00 (50-day moving average zone).
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
FXY · 4h
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above SMA (10) — near
- ROC (10) above 0 — near
- RSI (14) below 40 — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/ROC/RSI/ADX Signal Long (FXY@1d) (6 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (FXY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (FXY@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.9% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.7% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/ROC/RSI/ADX Signal Long (FXY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:FXY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (FXY@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:FXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (FXY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:FXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.85
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.7
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.85,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 40
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "SMA/ROC/RSI/ADX Signal Long (FXY@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:FXY"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (FXY@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:FXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:FXY",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (FXY@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:FXY"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.85
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.7
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.7%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.85,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Yen near 165 as Japan threatens intervention — fade the weakness for a snap-back'. Thesis: The yen is sitting near 165 to the dollar after its worst week in months, pushed down by clear warnings that the Fed will hold interest rates steady through 2026. Normally, higher U.S. rates attract money out of Japan and weaken the yen. But at these extreme lows, Japan's finance ministry is loudly warning they will 'take decisive action' to support their currency. When a central bank telegraphs direct market intervention, short-sellers often rush for the exits to lock in profits, causing a sharp, sudden bounce in the currency. Buying yen here is a contrarian bet that the government's threat will trigger that squeeze before any further weakness sets in.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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