Iran ceasefire collapses and Russia bans diesel — oil prices ready to rocket on
Thesis
The collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire (Articles 9c66acff, 412d4a0c) has instantly returned the Strait of Hormuz to 'full conflict conditions', adding a massive risk premium to energy prices. Simultaneously, Russia's ban on diesel exports removes another major chunk of global supply. When supply is physically constrained by war on two simultaneous fronts, oil prices typically surge faster than the broader market expects. This combination points toward a straightforward momentum trade on energy ETFs that capture the upside in crude.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long USO on D1 when front-month WTI crude oil futures gain >3% in a single session and the fund is above its 50-day moving average. Exit on a 6% trailing stop or after a 21-day max hold.