Public trading strategy
The 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 2023 is painful enough on its
Created
Thesis
The 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 2023 is painful enough on its own, but the government's record $6 billion buyback failing to dent yields shows the move has real momentum, not just headline noise. Bloomberg reports that investors' hedging rush is amplifying the yield spike — a self-reinforcing spiral that can overshoot. Property companies and homebuilders carry heavy debt loads and their valuations are directly discounted by those rising rates, so they fall harder than the broad market when yields spiral. This is a second-order equity trade, not the already-published long-Treasury or short-Treasury bets.
Strategy approach
The 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 2023 is painful enough on its own, but the government's record $6 billion buyback failing to dent yields shows the move has real momentum, not just headline noise. Bloomberg reports that investors' hedging rush is amplifying the yield spike — a self-reinforcing spiral that can overshoot. Property companies and homebuilders carry heavy debt loads and their valuations are directly discounted by those rising rates, so they fall harder than the broad market when yields spiral. This is a second-order equity trade, not the already-published long-Treasury or short-Treasury bets. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage,…
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
AVB · 1d
Incomplete evidence; No entry condition values were published.
DHI · 1d
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below SMA (50) — far
- ROC (10) below 0 — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price above SMA (50) — far
- ROC (10) above 0 — far
O · 1d
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below SMA (50) — near
- ROC (10) below 0 — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price above SMA (50) — near
- ROC (10) above 0 — far
VNQ · 1d
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below SMA (50) — near
- ROC (10) below 0 — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price above SMA (50) — near
- ROC (10) above 0 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Confirmed Breakdown Short (VNQ@1d) (5 conditions)
- Entry: Confirmed Breakdown Short (O@1d) (5 conditions)
- Entry: Confirmed Breakdown Short (DHI@1d) (5 conditions)
- Exit: Invalidation: Reclaim of SMA50 with Momentum Turn (VNQ@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Invalidation: Reclaim of SMA50 with Momentum Turn (O@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Invalidation: Reclaim of SMA50 with Momentum Turn (DHI@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Profit-Taking at Prior Range Low (VNQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Profit-Taking at Prior Range Low (O@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Profit-Taking at Prior Range Low (DHI@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.3% Adverse Move (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.7% Favorable Move (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_short_vnq",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (VNQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:VNQ"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_short_o",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (O@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:O"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_short_dhi",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (DHI@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DHI"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_signal_vnq",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim of SMA50 with Momentum Turn (VNQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:VNQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_signal_o",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim of SMA50 with Momentum Turn (O@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:O"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_signal_dhi",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim of SMA50 with Momentum Turn (DHI@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:DHI"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_range_low_vnq",
"name": "Profit-Taking at Prior Range Low (VNQ@1d)",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:VNQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_range_low_o",
"name": "Profit-Taking at Prior Range Low (O@1d)",
"priority": 91,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:O"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_range_low_dhi",
"name": "Profit-Taking at Prior Range Low (DHI@1d)",
"priority": 92,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:DHI"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.343
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_stop",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.3% Adverse Move",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.686
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_target",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.7% Favorable Move",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.343,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_short_vnq",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (VNQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:VNQ"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:O",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_short_o",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (O@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:O"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DHI",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_short_dhi",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (DHI@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DHI"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
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},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'The 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 2023 is painful enough on its own, but the government's record $6 billion buyback failing to dent yields shows the move has real momentum, not just headline noise. Bloomberg reports that investors' hedgin'. Thesis: The 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 2023 is painful enough on its own, but the government's record $6 billion buyback failing to dent yields shows the move has real momentum, not just headline noise. Bloomberg reports that investors' hedging rush is amplifying the yield spike — a self-reinforcing spiral that can overshoot. Property companies and homebuilders carry heavy debt loads and their valuations are directly discounted by those rising rates, so they fall harder than the broad market when yields spiral. This is a second-order equity trade, not the already-published long-Treasury or short-Treasury bets.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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