Public trading strategy
Weak jobs report kills rate hike fears — crypto relief rally on Bitcoin and Sola
Created
Thesis
The June jobs report showed a sharp slowdown, which tells the market the Fed likely won't raise interest rates. According to CoinDesk, Fed Chair Warsh had already noted inflation risks were easing, and this weak hiring data confirms that view. Earlier in the week, capital was fleeing crypto for the booming tech sector, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF shedding $300 million in outflows. But now, the combination of a dovish Fed and the removal of rate-hike fears creates a perfect macro tailwind for digital assets, setting up a relief rally for Bitcoin and altcoins like Solana.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long BTC-USD on D1 when the US Non-Farm Payroll report misses expectations by >100k, with a 14-day max hold and a 6% trailing stop.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Macro Relief Fade Short (BTC@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 6.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 10.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Max Hold 14 Days (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 70
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_btc_d1",
"name": "Macro Relief Fade Short (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -6
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "stop_loss_6pct",
"name": "Stop Loss at 6.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "take_profit",
"name": "Take Profit at 10.0%",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 14
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "time_stop_14d",
"name": "Max Hold 14 Days",
"priority": 80,
"purpose": "invalidation",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 6,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 70
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_btc_d1",
"name": "Macro Relief Fade Short (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -6
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "stop_loss_6pct",
"name": "Stop Loss at 6.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 10
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "take_profit",
"name": "Take Profit at 10.0%",
"priority": 90,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 14
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "time_stop_14d",
"name": "Max Hold 14 Days",
"priority": 80,
"purpose": "invalidation",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"stop_loss_percent": 6,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Weak jobs report kills rate hike fears — crypto relief rally on Bitcoin and Solana'. Thesis: The June jobs report showed a sharp slowdown, which tells the market the Fed likely won't raise interest rates. According to CoinDesk, Fed Chair Warsh had already noted inflation risks were easing, and this weak hiring data confirms that view. Earlier in the week, capital was fleeing crypto for the booming tech sector, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF shedding $300 million in outflows. But now, the combination of a dovish Fed and the removal of rate-hike fears creates a perfect macro tailwind for digital assets, setting up a relief rally for Bitcoin and altcoins like Solana.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies