Public trading strategy
Iran peace deal crashes oil + airlines flying high — play the fuel-cost tailwind
Created
Thesis
Oil prices are plunging after a US-Iran peace deal unleashed a wave of new supply, with Middle East producers described as 'desperate to sell' their stockpiled crude. Meanwhile, gasoline and diesel inventories remain constrained due to shipping worries, which means the raw cost of crude is falling faster than refined fuel prices at the pump — a margin-expansion sweet spot for fuel-heavy businesses. Airlines like Delta and United count jet fuel as their single largest expense, so a sustained drop in oil prices directly boosts their bottom line. This combination of oversupplied crude and continued strong travel demand sets up a classic cost-relief rally for airline stocks.
Strategy approach
Build a strategy that goes long DAL and UAL (D1) when the front-month WTI crude oil futures contract drops more than 5% over a 3-day period. Exit the airline position when WTI rebounds 3% from its low, or after 20 trading days, whichever comes first. Use a 7% stop loss.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
DAL · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (3) below -5 — far
- Price above EMA (10) — near
- ROC (3) above 3 — far
UAL · 1d
0 of 2 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (3) below -5 — far
- Price above EMA (10) — near
- ROC (3) above 3 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Oil Plunge Long DAL (DAL@1d / USO@1d trigger) (2 conditions)
- Entry: Oil Plunge Long UAL (UAL@1d / USO@1d trigger) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Oil Rebound Exit (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.9% (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (2 conditions)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_dal",
"name": "Oil Plunge Long DAL (DAL@1d / USO@1d trigger)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DAL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_ual",
"name": "Oil Plunge Long UAL (UAL@1d / USO@1d trigger)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UAL"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Oil Rebound Exit (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4700333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.940066666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1]",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"condition_tree": {
"children": [
{
"cond": {
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
"op": "cond"
},
{
"cond": {
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
"op": "cond"
}
],
"op": "any"
},
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1]",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.4700333333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "atr",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:UAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:DAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_dal",
"name": "Oil Plunge Long DAL (DAL@1d / USO@1d trigger)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:DAL"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:UAL",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_ual",
"name": "Oil Plunge Long UAL (UAL@1d / USO@1d trigger)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:UAL"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Oil Rebound Exit (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4700333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.940066666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.9%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1]",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"condition_tree": {
"children": [
{
"cond": {
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
"op": "cond"
},
{
"cond": {
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
"op": "cond"
}
],
"op": "any"
},
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1]",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.4700333333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Iran peace deal crashes oil + airlines flying high — play the fuel-cost tailwind on Delta and United'. Thesis: Oil prices are plunging after a US-Iran peace deal unleashed a wave of new supply, with Middle East producers described as 'desperate to sell' their stockpiled crude. Meanwhile, gasoline and diesel inventories remain constrained due to shipping worries, which means the raw cost of crude is falling faster than refined fuel prices at the pump — a margin-expansion sweet spot for fuel-heavy businesses. Airlines like Delta and United count jet fuel as their single largest expense, so a sustained drop in oil prices directly boosts their bottom line. This combination of oversupplied crude and continued strong travel demand sets up a classic cost-relief rally for airline stocks.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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