Public trading strategy
Chip stock party ends as Meta spooks the market — short the Q3 hangover on Micro
Created
Thesis
We are connecting the record-breaking Q2 rally in chipmakers with the sudden Q3 selloff and the shockwaves from South Korea. After Micron jumped 240% in a quarter, it lost nearly $200 billion in market cap in a single day as Meta's plan to offload computing power signaled a potential ceiling in AI demand. This combination of an overheated rally and a sudden fundamental shift in demand expectations points to further downside panic.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion / momentum-breakdown strategy that enters short MU on D1 when the stock drops more than 2 standard deviations below its 20-day moving average on volume 150% above the 20-day average. Confirm entry with RSI(14) < 30. Exit condition is a close above the 10-day high, or a 15% profit target, or a 21-day max hold.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Oversold BB/RSI/OBV Crossover Short (NVDA@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Oversold BB/RSI/OBV Crossover Short (AMD@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (AMD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 5.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 15.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (AMD@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (AMD@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_nvda",
"name": "Oversold BB/RSI/OBV Crossover Short (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "NVDA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_amd",
"name": "Oversold BB/RSI/OBV Crossover Short (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "AMD"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_nvda",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_amd",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "AMD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 5.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 15.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_nvda",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_amd",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "AMD"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_nvda",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_amd",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "AMD"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2.504566666666667,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_nvda",
"name": "Oversold BB/RSI/OBV Crossover Short (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "NVDA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_amd",
"name": "Oversold BB/RSI/OBV Crossover Short (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "AMD"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_nvda",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_amd",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "AMD"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 5.0%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 15.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_nvda",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_amd",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "AMD"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_nvda",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "AMD",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 382,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_amd",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (AMD@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "AMD"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 382,
"risk_percent": 2.504566666666667,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Chip stock party ends as Meta spooks the market — short the Q3 hangover on Micron'. Thesis: We are connecting the record-breaking Q2 rally in chipmakers with the sudden Q3 selloff and the shockwaves from South Korea. After Micron jumped 240% in a quarter, it lost nearly $200 billion in market cap in a single day as Meta's plan to offload computing power signaled a potential ceiling in AI demand. This combination of an overheated rally and a sudden fundamental shift in demand expectations points to further downside panic.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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