Weak jobs report kills rate-hike fears — buy the crypto relief rally
Thesis
The June jobs report showed only 57,000 new positions — half the expected 115,000 — which immediately scaled back expectations for Fed rate hikes. When the Fed is less likely to hike, bond yields fall, and lower yields make risk assets like crypto more attractive because they don't pay interest. Simultaneously, we saw a crypto-specific catalyst: a short squeeze that forced bearish traders to cover positions, pushing bitcoin toward $62,000. Connecting the weak jobs data with the bond rally and the crypto short squeeze, the macro backdrop is now aligned with a technical breakout in digital assets.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long BTC-USD on H4 when the 2-year US Treasury yield (or US2Y proxy) drops >0.10% intraday AND BTC-USD closes above its 20-period simple moving average. Exit if BTC closes below the 20-SMA or after a 48-hour max hold. Use a 3% stop loss.