Public trading strategy
Weak jobs kills Fed hike fears, money floods back into crypto — ride the BTC rel
Created
Thesis
The dismal June jobs report (only 57,000 jobs vs. 115,000 expected) immediately scaled back expectations for further Fed rate hikes. When rate-hike fears ease, risk assets like crypto tend to rally because cheaper borrowing costs make speculative investments more attractive. This macro shift aligns perfectly with the reversal in Bitcoin ETF flows — the 10-day outflow streak snapped with a $222 million inflow, showing institutional dip-buying. Combined with Fed Chair Warsh's dovish comments on inflation risks receding, these three signals together suggest the crypto downtrend may be exhausted. This trade connects the weak jobs data, the ETF inflow reversal, and the Fed's softer tone to build a macro-driven crypto bounce thesis.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long BTC-USD on H4 when the US 2-Year Treasury yield drops >10 bps over 24 hours AND spot BTC is above its 20-day moving average. Exit when the 2-Year yield rises >15 bps over 48 hours, or after a 14-day max hold. Use a 6% trailing stop.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/ROC Momentum Failure Fade Short (BTC@4h) (2 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/ROC Momentum Failure Fade Short (ETH@4h) (2 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/ROC Momentum Failure Fade Short (SOL@4h) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Fib Retracement 61.8% (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ETH@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Retracement 61.8% (SOL@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Extension 161.8% (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Extension 161.8% (ETH@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Extension 161.8% (SOL@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 6.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 12.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 6
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1.5
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "SMA/ROC Momentum Failure Fade Short (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 6
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1.5
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "SMA/ROC Momentum Failure Fade Short (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 6
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1.5
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_sol",
"name": "SMA/ROC Momentum Failure Fade Short (SOL@4h)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "TP: Fib Retracement 61.8% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "TP: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_sol",
"name": "TP: Fib Retracement 61.8% (SOL@4h)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_btc",
"name": "SL: Fib Extension 161.8% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_eth",
"name": "SL: Fib Extension 161.8% (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_sol",
"name": "SL: Fib Extension 161.8% (SOL@4h)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -6
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 6.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 12
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 12.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.581,
"stop_loss_percent": 6,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 3
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 6
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 12
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 6
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 12
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 6
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 12
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 6
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1.5
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_btc",
"name": "SMA/ROC Momentum Failure Fade Short (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 6
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1.5
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_eth",
"name": "SMA/ROC Momentum Failure Fade Short (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 6
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1.5
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_sol",
"name": "SMA/ROC Momentum Failure Fade Short (SOL@4h)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_btc",
"name": "TP: Fib Retracement 61.8% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_eth",
"name": "TP: Fib Retracement 61.8% (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_sol",
"name": "TP: Fib Retracement 61.8% (SOL@4h)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_btc",
"name": "SL: Fib Extension 161.8% (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_eth",
"name": "SL: Fib Extension 161.8% (ETH@4h)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:ETH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"ratio": 1618,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_sol",
"name": "SL: Fib Extension 161.8% (SOL@4h)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:SOL"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -6
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 6.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 12
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 12.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.581,
"stop_loss_percent": 6,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 3
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Weak jobs kills Fed hike fears, money floods back into crypto — ride the BTC relief rally'. Thesis: The dismal June jobs report (only 57,000 jobs vs. 115,000 expected) immediately scaled back expectations for further Fed rate hikes. When rate-hike fears ease, risk assets like crypto tend to rally because cheaper borrowing costs make speculative investments more attractive. This macro shift aligns perfectly with the reversal in Bitcoin ETF flows — the 10-day outflow streak snapped with a $222 million inflow, showing institutional dip-buying. Combined with Fed Chair Warsh's dovish comments on inflation risks receding, these three signals together suggest the crypto downtrend may be exhausted. This trade connects the weak jobs data, the ETF inflow reversal, and the Fed's softer tone to build a macro-driven crypto bounce thesis.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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