US strikes Iran after ceasefire breakdown — oil supply risk play on energy stock
Thesis
The US military strike on Iran following a ceasefire violation in the Strait of Hormuz represents a major geopolitical escalation. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. When that article is combined with the report that oil prices are already holding gains as traders weigh the impact of a ship attack in the same waterway, it creates a clear supply-risk premium. If the strait is compromised or tensions escalate further, energy prices and oil company stocks are positioned to rally sharply.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long XOM and CVX on D1 when front-month crude oil futures gain >3% in a single session and there is a confirmed macro geopolitical event involving the Strait of Hormuz. Exit after 14 days or on a 6% trailing stop.