Public trading strategy
NVDA Confirmation-Gated Breakout (Value/Event-Driven) Strategy
Created
Thesis
China reopening its market to new Nvidia chips would unlock demand from ByteDance and Alibaba — two of the world's biggest AI spenders — that analysts currently assume is zero. Meanwhile the physical supply chain under the chips is already a bottleneck, so any new demand hits prices and order books hard in Nvidia's favor. Wall Street's growing skepticism about data-center financing has kept the stock from reflecting this news, which is exactly the kind of gap between story and price that creates an entry. If the China approval stalls, the trade thesis fails and the position should be cut quickly.
Strategy approach
China reopening its market to new Nvidia chips would unlock demand from ByteDance and Alibaba — two of the world's biggest AI spenders — that analysts currently assume is zero. Meanwhile the physical supply chain under the chips is already a bottleneck, so any new demand hits prices and order books hard in Nvidia's favor. Wall Street's growing skepticism about data-center financing has kept the stock from reflecting this news, which is exactly the kind of gap between story and price that creates an entry. If the China approval stalls, the trade thesis fails and the position should be cut quickly. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat,…
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BABA · 1d
No entry condition values were published.
NVDA · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above Bollinger (20) — met
- OBV above 0 — unknown
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- Price above EMA (9) — met
SMH · 1d
3 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price above Bollinger (20) — met
- OBV above 0 — unknown
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price above EMA (9) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: BB/OBV/ADX/EMA Signal Long (NVDA@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: BB/OBV/ADX/EMA Signal Long (SMH@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SMH@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (SMH@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (SMH@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (SMH@1d) (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_nvda",
"name": "BB/OBV/ADX/EMA Signal Long (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_smh",
"name": "BB/OBV/ADX/EMA Signal Long (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_nvda",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_smh",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_nvda",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_smh",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_nvda",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_smh",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4153333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.830666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 500,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7_nvda",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 500,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7_smh",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 500,
"risk_percent": 2.4153333333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
{
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "obv"
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_nvda",
"name": "BB/OBV/ADX/EMA Signal Long (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "bollinger_bands",
"period": 20,
"std_dev": 2
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "obv"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 9
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_smh",
"name": "BB/OBV/ADX/EMA Signal Long (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_nvda",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_smh",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_nvda",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_smh",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_nvda",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_smh",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4153333333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.830666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 500,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7_nvda",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "long",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 500,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7_smh",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 500,
"risk_percent": 2.4153333333333333,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'China reopening its market to new Nvidia chips would unlock demand from ByteDance and Alibaba — two of the world's biggest AI spenders — that analysts currently assume is zero. Meanwhile the physical supply chain under the chips is already a bottleneck, s'. Thesis: China reopening its market to new Nvidia chips would unlock demand from ByteDance and Alibaba — two of the world's biggest AI spenders — that analysts currently assume is zero. Meanwhile the physical supply chain under the chips is already a bottleneck, so any new demand hits prices and order books hard in Nvidia's favor. Wall Street's growing skepticism about data-center financing has kept the stock from reflecting this news, which is exactly the kind of gap between story and price that creates an entry. If the China approval stalls, the trade thesis fails and the position should be cut quickly.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies