Iran talks ease war premium on oil just as Japan stabilizes the yen — long Japan
Thesis
When the US successfully negotiates with Iran to keep oil flowing, energy prices drop, which acts like a massive tax cut for manufacturers and consumers. Simultaneously, reports that Japan is actively intervening to strengthen the yen suggest currency headwinds for Japanese exporters might finally be easing. The stability in Bitcoin above $60K despite these macro shifts shows risk appetite isn't broken globally—it's just rotating. Historically, when Japan's currency stabilizes and oil gets cheaper, industrial stocks in Asia catch a bid as their profit margins expand.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF) or a Japan Industrial ETF (e.g., SCJ) on D1 when USDJPY drops by more than 1.5% in a single day (signaling yen strength) and crude oil futures (CL=F) fall more than 1% on the same day. Exit if USDJPY rebounds above its 10-day moving average, with a 21-day max hold.