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Public trading strategy

TSMC's massive profit isn't enough for greedy investors — short the semiconducto

Created

Thesis

TSMC's incredible 77% profit jump wasn't enough to satisfy the market's towering expectations, triggering a global sell-off in chip and AI-related stocks. When a company shatters earnings records but its stock drops anyway, it usually means valuations have gotten dangerously stretched and the 'bull case' is already fully priced in. The panic selling is spilling over from Asia to Wall Street, creating a short-term downward momentum that is likely to persist as nervous investors lock in their gains.

Strategy approach

Build a rule-based mean-reversion/short-bias strategy on SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF). Enter short on D1 timeframe if the ETF closes below its 20-day simple moving average with an RSI(14) between 30 and 50 (bearish momentum, not yet oversold), specifically triggered after high-volume distribution days. Exit the trade if SMH closes back above the 10-day exponential moving average, or hold for a maximum of 15 trading days with a 4% hard stop loss.

Markets and timeframes

Latest published rule evaluation

Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.

AMD · 1d

4 of 10 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price below SMA (20) — far
  • RSI (14) above 30 — met
  • RSI (14) below 50 — far
  • OBV below 0 — unknown
  • ADX (14) above 20 — met
  • Price below SMA (20) — far
  • RSI (14) above 30 — met
  • RSI (14) below 50 — far
  • OBV below 0 — unknown
  • ADX (14) above 20 — met
  • Price above EMA (10) — met
  • Price above EMA (10) — met

NVDA · 1d

6 of 10 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price below SMA (20) — met
  • RSI (14) above 30 — met
  • RSI (14) below 50 — met
  • OBV below 0 — unknown
  • ADX (14) above 20 — far
  • Price below SMA (20) — met
  • RSI (14) above 30 — met
  • RSI (14) below 50 — met
  • OBV below 0 — unknown
  • ADX (14) above 20 — far
  • Price above EMA (10) — near
  • Price above EMA (10) — near

SMH · 1d

2 of 10 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price below SMA (20) — near
  • RSI (14) above 30 — met
  • RSI (14) below 50 — far
  • OBV below 0 — unknown
  • ADX (14) above 20 — far
  • Price below SMA (20) — near
  • RSI (14) above 30 — met
  • RSI (14) below 50 — far
  • OBV below 0 — unknown
  • ADX (14) above 20 — far
  • Price above EMA (10) — met
  • Price above EMA (10) — met

TSM · 1d

2 of 10 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price below SMA (20) — near
  • RSI (14) above 30 — met
  • RSI (14) below 50 — far
  • OBV below 0 — unknown
  • ADX (14) above 20 — far
  • Price below SMA (20) — near
  • RSI (14) above 30 — met
  • RSI (14) below 50 — far
  • OBV below 0 — unknown
  • ADX (14) above 20 — far
  • Price above EMA (10) — met
  • Price above EMA (10) — met

Entry and exit at a glance

These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.

  • Entry: SMA/RSI/OBV/ADX Crossover Long (SMH@1d) (6 conditions)
  • Entry: SMA/RSI/OBV/ADX Crossover Long (NVDA@1d) (6 conditions)
  • Entry: SMA/RSI/OBV/ADX Crossover Long (TSM@1d) (6 conditions)
  • Entry: SMA/RSI/OBV/ADX Crossover Long (AMD@1d) (6 conditions)
  • Entry: SMA/RSI/OBV/ADX Crossover Long (MU@1d) (6 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (SMH@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (NVDA@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (TSM@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (AMD@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (MU@1d) (2 conditions)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SMH@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (AMD@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (MU@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (SMH@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (AMD@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (MU@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
  • Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (SMH@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (AMD@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (MU@1d) (1 condition)

Shared strategy rules

Rule configuration

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "obv"
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_smh",
      "name": "SMA/RSI/OBV/ADX Crossover Long (SMH@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "obv"
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_nvda",
      "name": "SMA/RSI/OBV/ADX Crossover Long (NVDA@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "obv"
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_tsm",
      "name": "SMA/RSI/OBV/ADX Crossover Long (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "obv"
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_amd",
      "name": "SMA/RSI/OBV/ADX Crossover Long (AMD@1d)",
      "priority": 4,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "obv"
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_mu",
      "name": "SMA/RSI/OBV/ADX Crossover Long (MU@1d)",
      "priority": 5,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:MU"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 15
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_smh",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (SMH@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 15
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_nvda",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (NVDA@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 15
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_tsm",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 15
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_amd",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (AMD@1d)",
      "priority": 4,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 10
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 15
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1_mu",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (MU@1d)",
      "priority": 5,
      "purpose": "signal",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:MU"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_smh",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (SMH@1d)",
      "priority": 96,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_nvda",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (NVDA@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_tsm",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 98,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_amd",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (AMD@1d)",
      "priority": 99,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 1272,
            "type": "fibonacci_extension"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_mu",
      "name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (MU@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:MU"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_smh",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (SMH@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_nvda",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (NVDA@1d)",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_tsm",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 102,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_amd",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (AMD@1d)",
      "priority": 103,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_mu",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (MU@1d)",
      "priority": 104,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:MU"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -2.413266666666667
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_4",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 4.826533333333334
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "short",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_6_smh",
      "name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (SMH@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "short",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_6_nvda",
      "name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (NVDA@1d)",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "short",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_6_tsm",
      "name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 102,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "short",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_6_amd",
      "name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (AMD@1d)",
      "priority": 103,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:AMD"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "short",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 382,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_6_mu",
      "name": "SL: Fib Retracement 38.2% (MU@1d)",
      "priority": 104,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:MU"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 20,
    "method": {
      "fib_stop_ratio": 382,
      "risk_percent": 2.413266666666667,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

Indicator configuration

{
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "sma",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "obv"
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "sma",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "obv"
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "sma",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "obv"
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "sma",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "obv"
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "sma",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 10
    },
    {
      "name": "obv"
    },
    {
      "name": "adx",
      "period": 14
    }
  ]
}

Parsed strategy

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:MU",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "obv"
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_smh",
      "name": "SMA/RSI/OBV/ADX Crossover Long (SMH@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "obv"
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_nvda",
      "name": "SMA/RSI/OBV/ADX Crossover Long (NVDA@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 50
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "obv"
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 0
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "adx",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "adx",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 20
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_tsm",
      "name": "SMA/RSI/OBV/ADX Crossover Long (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:AMD",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 30
          }
        },
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}

Strategy instructions

Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'TSMC's massive profit isn't enough for greedy investors — short the semiconductor rally'. Thesis: TSMC's incredible 77% profit jump wasn't enough to satisfy the market's towering expectations, triggering a global sell-off in chip and AI-related stocks. When a company shatters earnings records but its stock drops anyway, it usually means valuations have gotten dangerously stretched and the 'bull case' is already fully priced in. The panic selling is spilling over from Asia to Wall Street, creating a short-term downward momentum that is likely to persist as nervous investors lock in their gains.

Performance

No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.

What this public preview can establish

  • The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
  • Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
  • No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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