Public trading strategy
The oil spike is feeding inflation fears, which is pushing bond yields toward 20
Created
Thesis
The oil spike is feeding inflation fears, which is pushing bond yields toward 2023 peaks and draining appetite for risky assets everywhere. Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to reclaim $80,000 and is only holding $78,000, while Dogecoin and other majors are already down 3-5% — the weak links are breaking first. Add in fears that cheap yen borrowing is being unwound, and the pressure on crypto is coming from multiple directions. If $78,000 gives way, there's little visible support until much lower levels.
Strategy approach
The oil spike is feeding inflation fears, which is pushing bond yields toward 2023 peaks and draining appetite for risky assets everywhere. Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to reclaim $80,000 and is only holding $78,000, while Dogecoin and other majors are already down 3-5% — the weak links are breaking first. Add in fears that cheap yen borrowing is being unwound, and the pressure on crypto is coming from multiple directions. If $78,000 gives way, there's little visible support until much lower levels. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat, catalysts, counterevidence, invalidation.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BITO · 1d
1 of 7 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below 78 — far
- Price below EMA (21) — near
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
- Price crossed above 78 — far
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- Price crossed below 78 — far
- RSI (14) below 30 — far
- Price above EMA (5) — near
BTC · 1d
2 of 7 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price crossed below 78000 — near
- Price below EMA (21) — near
- RSI (14) below 50 — met
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- Price crossed above 78000 — near
- RSI (14) below 50 — met
- Price crossed below 78000 — near
- Price above 80000 — near
- Price above EMA (21) — met
- RSI (14) below 30 — far
- Price above EMA (5) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Confirmed Breakdown Short (BTC@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Confirmed Breakdown Short (BITO@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Failed Retest Short (BTC@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: Failed Retest Short (BITO@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Invalidation: Reclaim Above 80,000 with Trend Recovery (BTC@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Time Stop at 45 Bars (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Oversold Bounce Scaling Out (BTC@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Oversold Bounce Scaling Out (BITO@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.5% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 78000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_breakdown_btc",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 78
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_breakdown_bito",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (BITO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:BITO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 78000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 78000
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_failed_retest_btc",
"name": "Failed Retest Short (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 78
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 78
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_failed_retest_bito",
"name": "Failed Retest Short (BITO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:BITO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 80000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_invalidation_btc",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim Above 80,000 with Trend Recovery (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_time_stop",
"name": "Time Stop at 45 Bars",
"priority": 50,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_oversold_btc",
"name": "TP: Oversold Bounce Scaling Out (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_oversold_bito",
"name": "TP: Oversold Bounce Scaling Out (BITO@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:BITO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5223333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.044666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 618,
"risk_percent": 2.5223333333333335,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 78000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_breakdown_btc",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 78
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_breakdown_bito",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (BITO@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:BITO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 78000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 78000
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_failed_retest_btc",
"name": "Failed Retest Short (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 78
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 78
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_failed_retest_bito",
"name": "Failed Retest Short (BITO@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:BITO"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 80000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 21
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_invalidation_btc",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim Above 80,000 with Trend Recovery (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_time_stop",
"name": "Time Stop at 45 Bars",
"priority": 50,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_oversold_btc",
"name": "TP: Oversold Bounce Scaling Out (BTC@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "CRYPTO:BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:BITO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_tp_oversold_bito",
"name": "TP: Oversold Bounce Scaling Out (BITO@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:BITO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5223333333333335
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.044666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 618,
"risk_percent": 2.5223333333333335,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'The oil spike is feeding inflation fears, which is pushing bond yields toward 2023 peaks and draining appetite for risky assets everywhere. Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to reclaim $80,000 and is only holding $78,000, while Dogecoin and other majors are a'. Thesis: The oil spike is feeding inflation fears, which is pushing bond yields toward 2023 peaks and draining appetite for risky assets everywhere. Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to reclaim $80,000 and is only holding $78,000, while Dogecoin and other majors are already down 3-5% — the weak links are breaking first. Add in fears that cheap yen borrowing is being unwound, and the pressure on crypto is coming from multiple directions. If $78,000 gives way, there's little visible support until much lower levels.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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