Iran oil blocked and tankers stuck at Hormuz — long oil majors on supply shock
Thesis
The US military has carried out strikes on over 80 Iranian targets and revoked the waiver that allowed Iran's oil sales, per Bloomberg. Simultaneously, oil prices have surged as attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have spooked tanker owners — Bloomberg reports only a handful of carriers are braving the passage. This physical supply disruption is already having second-order effects: German bund yields have climbed above 3% as higher oil prices reignite inflation fears. When a chokepoint like Hormuz is effectively blocked and Iranian barrels are removed from the market, the supply shock drives up crude — and oil majors with diversified production capture the windfall directly.
Strategy approach
Build a momentum strategy on oil equities (XOM, CVX, COP) using daily candles. Enter long when WTI crude (CL=F) makes a 10-day new high AND the 20-day average volume of the selected stock exceeds its 50-day average volume by at least 15% (volume confirmation). Exit on a 8% trailing stop from the highest close since entry, or after a 25-trading-day max hold.