Weak jobs report kills rate-hike fears — buy Bitcoin as the pressure valve relea
Thesis
The June jobs report was shockingly weak, with only 57,000 positions added, which has prompted traders to abandon the idea of a Fed rate hike. This caused Treasury bonds to rally. Since Bitcoin originally sold off due to rate-hike fears, this macro pivot acts as a major clearing event. We combine this with reports that long-term holders are aggressively accumulating Bitcoin even as ETF investors flee, suggesting smart money is front-running a relief rally now that the interest rate headwind is disappearing.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long BTCUSD on H4 when the US 10-Year Treasury yield drops >10 basis points in a single session (indicating a dovish shift) AND Bitcoin is trading above its 50-day moving average. Exit if BTCUSD closes below the 50-day moving average or after a 14-day max hold.