Public trading strategy
Fed warns rates may go up and crypto money is fleeing — short Bitcoin proxy stoc
Created
Thesis
Bitcoin is getting squeezed from two sides at once. First, investors are pulling billions out of crypto funds at a record pace, which means big money is heading for the exits. Second, a top Federal Reserve official just said interest rates might need to go even higher because inflation won't cool down. Bitcoin hates higher interest rates because it makes safer investments like government bonds pay more, drawing money away from crypto. The article about Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) is the final piece: it's basically a leveraged Bitcoin holding company that has lost nearly half its value this month. When Bitcoin falls and rates rise, MSTR falls twice as hard.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters short MSTR on D1 when the 20-day Treasury yield rises 5 basis points in a single session AND IBIT closes below its 10-day low. Exit if MSTR's daily RSI(14) drops below 25 (oversold bounce risk). Use a 10% hard stop and a 30-day max hold.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
COIN · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below Donchian (10) — met
- ROC (1) above 0.5 — far
- Price below Donchian (10) — met
- ROC (1) above 0.5 — far
- RSI (14) below 25 — far
- RSI (14) below 25 — far
MSTR · 1d
2 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below Donchian (10) — met
- ROC (1) above 0.5 — far
- Price below Donchian (10) — met
- ROC (1) above 0.5 — far
- RSI (14) below 25 — far
- RSI (14) below 25 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC Signal Long (MSTR@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC Signal Long (IBIT@1d) (3 conditions)
- Entry: DONCHIAN/ROC Signal Long (COIN@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (MSTR@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (IBIT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Oversold RSI Exit (COIN@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (MSTR@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (IBIT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (COIN@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSTR@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (IBIT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (COIN@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.6% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.2% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "IBIT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mstr",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC Signal Long (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IBIT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IBIT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ibit",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC Signal Long (IBIT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "IBIT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_coin",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC Signal Long (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "COIN"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mstr",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IBIT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ibit",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (IBIT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "IBIT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_coin",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mstr",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_ibit",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (IBIT@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "IBIT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_coin",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mstr",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_ibit",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (IBIT@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "IBIT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_coin",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5839999999999996
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.167999999999999
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.5839999999999996,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "IBIT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mstr",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC Signal Long (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IBIT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IBIT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_ibit",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC Signal Long (IBIT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "IBIT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "lower",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 1
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0.5
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_coin",
"name": "DONCHIAN/ROC Signal Long (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "COIN"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mstr",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "IBIT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_ibit",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (IBIT@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "IBIT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_coin",
"name": "Oversold RSI Exit (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mstr",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_ibit",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (IBIT@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "IBIT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_coin",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mstr",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_ibit",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (IBIT@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "IBIT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_coin",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.5839999999999996
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.167999999999999
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.5839999999999996,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Fed warns rates may go up and crypto money is fleeing — short Bitcoin proxy stocks like MicroStrategy'. Thesis: Bitcoin is getting squeezed from two sides at once. First, investors are pulling billions out of crypto funds at a record pace, which means big money is heading for the exits. Second, a top Federal Reserve official just said interest rates might need to go even higher because inflation won't cool down. Bitcoin hates higher interest rates because it makes safer investments like government bonds pay more, drawing money away from crypto. The article about Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) is the final piece: it's basically a leveraged Bitcoin holding company that has lost nearly half its value this month. When Bitcoin falls and rates rise, MSTR falls twice as hard.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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