Public trading strategy
Bitcoin whales brace for a $13B options expiry — position for a crypto pullback
Created
Thesis
Large options expirations act like a magnet for stock and crypto prices, and right now, the biggest traders are positioning for the price of Bitcoin to fall. With the Federal Reserve talking about raising interest rates again next month, borrowing money gets more expensive, pushing investors away from risky bets like crypto. With Bitcoin struggling to stay above $63,000, this sets up a classic short opportunity to bet against the price as it loses its footing.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion/breakdown strategy that enters short on BTCUSDT on the 4-hour (H4) timeframe when the price breaks and closes below the $63,000 support level with volume higher than the 20-period average. Place a stop loss at $65,000 and set a take profit at the next major support level or a 5% drop.
Markets and timeframes
BTCH4
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ADX Signal Short (BTC@4h) (3 conditions)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 3.2% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 63000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "minus_di",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "plus_di",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "ADX Signal Short (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3.2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.2%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"type": "allocation"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 63000
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "minus_di",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "plus_di",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "ADX Signal Short (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3.2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Stop Loss at 3.2%",
"priority": 10,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.0%",
"priority": 11,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"type": "allocation"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Bitcoin whales brace for a $13B options expiry — position for a crypto pullback'. Thesis: Large options expirations act like a magnet for stock and crypto prices, and right now, the biggest traders are positioning for the price of Bitcoin to fall. With the Federal Reserve talking about raising interest rates again next month, borrowing money gets more expensive, pushing investors away from risky bets like crypto. With Bitcoin struggling to stay above $63,000, this sets up a classic short opportunity to bet against the price as it loses its footing.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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