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Public trading strategy

Roku exploring a potential sale — position for the buyout premium

Created

Thesis

When a company officially announces it is exploring a sale, its stock usually jumps immediately because buyers have to pay a premium to purchase the company. Even if a deal hasn't been finalized yet, the rumor alone creates strong upward momentum. Because Roku is a well-known player in the streaming wars, there is a high likelihood that a larger tech or media giant could step in to buy them. This makes the stock attractive as investors bet that a bidding war could push the buyout price even higher.

Strategy approach

Build a rule-based strategy that enters long ROKU on the daily timeframe when the price closes above the 20-day simple moving average and ATR(14) expands by more than 50% relative to its 10-day average. Exit if the price closes below the 20-day simple moving average, or after a 21-day max hold.

Markets and timeframes

Entry and exit at a glance

These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.

  • Entry: SMA/ATR Signal Long (ROKU@1d) (4 conditions)
  • Exit: Position Exit Rule (ROKU@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (ROKU@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (ROKU@1d) (1 condition)

Shared strategy rules

Rule configuration

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "ROKU",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "ROKU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "ROKU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "atr",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 1.5
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "ROKU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 618,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "ROKU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 618,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1",
      "name": "SMA/ATR Signal Long (ROKU@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "ROKU"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "ROKU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (ROKU@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (ROKU@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "ROKU"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[2] (ROKU@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "ROKU"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "risk_percent": 2,
      "stop_loss_percent": 8,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

Indicator configuration

{
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "sma",
      "period": 20
    },
    {
      "name": "atr",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "atr",
      "period": 10
    }
  ]
}

Parsed strategy

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "ROKU",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "ROKU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "ROKU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "atr",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 1.5
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "low",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "ROKU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 618,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "ROKU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "ratio": 618,
            "type": "fibonacci_retracement"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1",
      "name": "SMA/ATR Signal Long (ROKU@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "ROKU"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "ROKU",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "sma",
              "period": 20
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1",
      "name": "Position Exit Rule (ROKU@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (ROKU@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "ROKU"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[2] (ROKU@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "ROKU"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "risk_percent": 2,
      "stop_loss_percent": 8,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 1
}

Strategy instructions

Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Roku exploring a potential sale — position for the buyout premium'. Thesis: When a company officially announces it is exploring a sale, its stock usually jumps immediately because buyers have to pay a premium to purchase the company. Even if a deal hasn't been finalized yet, the rumor alone creates strong upward momentum. Because Roku is a well-known player in the streaming wars, there is a high likelihood that a larger tech or media giant could step in to buy them. This makes the stock attractive as investors bet that a bidding war could push the buyout price even higher.

Performance

No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.

What this public preview can establish

  • The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
  • Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
  • No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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