Public trading strategy
OpenAI's $1 trillion IPO could make Microsoft the biggest winner in AI — accumul
Created
Thesis
OpenAI's upcoming $1 trillion IPO will be the largest in history, and Microsoft is positioned as the biggest winner due to its substantial ownership stake. While chip stocks like NVIDIA are experiencing 23-year-high volatility and the Nasdaq struggles, Microsoft offers a way to participate in AI upside without the extreme swings. As the market rotates away from volatile semiconductor names toward stable mega-caps (evidenced by the Dow hitting records), Microsoft stands at the intersection of AI exposure and relative stability. When the biggest IPO in history looms, the parent company's stock typically rises into the event.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based strategy that enters long MSFT on D1 when the stock is within 3% of its 50-day moving average and QQQ has dropped >2% in the prior 5 days (buying the dip in stable AI names). Exit when MSFT makes a 20-day new high, or after a 45-day hold.
Markets and timeframes
MSFTD1
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
MSFT · 1d
2 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below 3 — far
- ROC (5) below -2 — far
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- Price below 3 — far
- ROC (5) below -2 — far
- Price above SMA (50) — met
- Price crossed above Donchian (20) — near
- Price crossed above Donchian (20) — near
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ROC/SMA Signal Long (MSFT@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/SMA Signal Long (QQQ@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (MSFT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (MSFT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (MSFT@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (QQQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_msft",
"name": "ROC/SMA Signal Long (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_qqq",
"name": "ROC/SMA Signal Long (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "QQQ"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_msft",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_qqq",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_msft",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_qqq",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_msft",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_qqq",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.398833333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.797666666666666
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.398833333333333,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
{
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_msft",
"name": "ROC/SMA Signal Long (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 5
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_qqq",
"name": "ROC/SMA Signal Long (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "QQQ"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSFT",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_msft",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "upper",
"indicator": {
"name": "donchian",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_qqq",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_msft",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_qqq",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_msft",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (MSFT@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "MSFT"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_qqq",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "QQQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.398833333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.797666666666666
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.398833333333333,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'OpenAI's $1 trillion IPO could make Microsoft the biggest winner in AI — accumulate MSFT before the frenzy'. Thesis: OpenAI's upcoming $1 trillion IPO will be the largest in history, and Microsoft is positioned as the biggest winner due to its substantial ownership stake. While chip stocks like NVIDIA are experiencing 23-year-high volatility and the Nasdaq struggles, Microsoft offers a way to participate in AI upside without the extreme swings. As the market rotates away from volatile semiconductor names toward stable mega-caps (evidenced by the Dow hitting records), Microsoft stands at the intersection of AI exposure and relative stability. When the biggest IPO in history looms, the parent company's stock typically rises into the event.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies