Public trading strategy
With the 10-year yield near 5%, safe government bonds now pay investors nearly a
Created
Thesis
With the 10-year yield near 5%, safe government bonds now pay investors nearly as much as the dividend yields on real estate and utilities — but without the price risk. These rate-sensitive sectors trade largely on that comparison, so every step up in yields mechanically pulls their valuations down. The August inflation report confirms price pressure is energy-driven and stubborn, and Siegel's warning that the Fed chair will be forced into another rate hike means yields have further to climb rather than revert. That combination makes the 'safe income' stock trade structurally headwinded until the rate picture clears.
Strategy approach
With the 10-year yield near 5%, safe government bonds now pay investors nearly as much as the dividend yields on real estate and utilities — but without the price risk. These rate-sensitive sectors trade largely on that comparison, so every step up in yields mechanically pulls their valuations down. The August inflation report confirms price pressure is energy-driven and stubborn, and Siegel's warning that the Fed chair will be forced into another rate hike means yields have further to climb rather than revert. That combination makes the 'safe income' stock trade structurally headwinded until the rate picture clears. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage,…
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/EMA/ADX/MACD Signal Long (VNQ@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/EMA/ADX/MACD Signal Long (XLRE@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/EMA/ADX/MACD Signal Long (XLU@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/EMA/ADX/MACD Signal Long (VNQ@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/EMA/ADX/MACD Signal Long (XLRE@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/EMA/ADX/MACD Signal Long (XLU@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (VNQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (XLRE@1d) (1 condition)
- Entry: Crossover Long (XLU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (VNQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (XLRE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (XLU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (VNQ@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLRE@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLU@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.8% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.5% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_vnq",
"name": "SMA/EMA/ADX/MACD Signal Long (VNQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:VNQ"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xlre",
"name": "SMA/EMA/ADX/MACD Signal Long (XLRE@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLRE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_xlu",
"name": "SMA/EMA/ADX/MACD Signal Long (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_vnq",
"name": "SMA/EMA/ADX/MACD Signal Long (VNQ@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:VNQ"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_xlre",
"name": "SMA/EMA/ADX/MACD Signal Long (XLRE@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLRE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2_xlu",
"name": "SMA/EMA/ADX/MACD Signal Long (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_vnq",
"name": "Crossover Long (VNQ@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:VNQ"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_xlre",
"name": "Crossover Long (XLRE@1d)",
"priority": 3,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLRE"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3_xlu",
"name": "Crossover Long (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 4,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 90
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_vnq",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (VNQ@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:VNQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xlre",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XLRE@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLRE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_xlu",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 99,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_vnq",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (VNQ@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:VNQ"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xlre",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLRE@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLRE"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_xlu",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (XLU@1d)",
"priority": 102,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:XLU"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.75
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.5
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 1,
"risk_percent": 2.75,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLRE",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:XLU",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 200
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:VNQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_vnq",
"name": "SMA/EMA/ADX/MACD Signal Long (VNQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:VNQ"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
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}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'With the 10-year yield near 5%, safe government bonds now pay investors nearly as much as the dividend yields on real estate and utilities — but without the price risk. These rate-sensitive sectors trade largely on that comparison, so every step up in yie'. Thesis: With the 10-year yield near 5%, safe government bonds now pay investors nearly as much as the dividend yields on real estate and utilities — but without the price risk. These rate-sensitive sectors trade largely on that comparison, so every step up in yields mechanically pulls their valuations down. The August inflation report confirms price pressure is energy-driven and stubborn, and Siegel's warning that the Fed chair will be forced into another rate hike means yields have further to climb rather than revert. That combination makes the 'safe income' stock trade structurally headwinded until the rate picture clears.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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