Public trading strategy
Carvana's 15% drop shows the market is punishing companies that lower guidance e
Created
Thesis
Carvana's 15% drop shows the market is punishing companies that lower guidance even when current results look okay. What makes this trade compelling is the macro backdrop: three Fed officials just voted to raise interest rates, meaning borrowing costs are likely heading higher, not lower. Carvana is deeply sensitive to financing costs — it carries billions in debt from its expansion years and relies on auto loans for its customers. If rates climb further, both the company's debt burden and its customers' ability to buy cars get squeezed at the same time. That double pressure makes the lowered guidance look less like a one-quarter blip and more like the start of a grinding downgrade cycle.
Strategy approach
Carvana's 15% drop shows the market is punishing companies that lower guidance even when current results look okay. What makes this trade compelling is the macro backdrop: three Fed officials just voted to raise interest rates, meaning borrowing costs are likely heading higher, not lower. Carvana is deeply sensitive to financing costs — it carries billions in debt from its expansion years and relies on auto loans for its customers. If rates climb further, both the company's debt burden and its customers' ability to buy cars get squeezed at the same time. That double pressure makes the lowered guidance look less like a one-quarter blip and more like the start of a grinding downgrade cycle. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity,…
Markets and timeframes
CVNA1D
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
CVNA · 1d
0 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (50) — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
- RSI (14) below 30 — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Confirmed Breakdown Short (CVNA@1d) (5 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (1 condition)
- Exit: Invalidation: Reclaim of Broken Support (CVNA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (CVNA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.0% (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Prior Consolidation / Fib Extension 127.2% (CVNA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Oversold After Extended Decline (CVNA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.0% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "sma",
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (CVNA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CVNA"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim of Broken Support (CVNA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CVNA"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 500,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (CVNA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "TP: Prior Consolidation / Fib Extension 127.2% (CVNA@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CVNA"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "TP: Oversold After Extended Decline (CVNA@1d)",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 500,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "sma",
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Confirmed Breakdown Short (CVNA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CVNA"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Invalidation: Reclaim of Broken Support (CVNA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CVNA"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 500,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 50.0% (CVNA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "TP: Prior Consolidation / Fib Extension 127.2% (CVNA@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CVNA"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CVNA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "TP: Oversold After Extended Decline (CVNA@1d)",
"priority": 95,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.0%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 500,
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 2
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Carvana's 15% drop shows the market is punishing companies that lower guidance even when current results look okay. What makes this trade compelling is the macro backdrop: three Fed officials just voted to raise interest rates, meaning borrowing costs are'. Thesis: Carvana's 15% drop shows the market is punishing companies that lower guidance even when current results look okay. What makes this trade compelling is the macro backdrop: three Fed officials just voted to raise interest rates, meaning borrowing costs are likely heading higher, not lower. Carvana is deeply sensitive to financing costs — it carries billions in debt from its expansion years and relies on auto loans for its customers. If rates climb further, both the company's debt burden and its customers' ability to buy cars get squeezed at the same time. That double pressure makes the lowered guidance look less like a one-quarter blip and more like the start of a grinding downgrade cycle.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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