Public trading strategy
War panic triggers record chip sell-off — contrarian bounce play on Nvidia
Created
Thesis
Escalating conflict and blockade news in the Middle East sparked a broad market panic that dragged down even the strongest tech and AI stocks. News of a record-breaking 15% crash in a major foreign AI chip supplier amplified the fear, triggering a blind sell-off across the entire semiconductor sector. However, Nvidia's underlying business remains incredibly robust with a massive market valuation and recent confirmation that its next major products are on track. When a market leader with massive revenue growth drops purely because of geopolitical headlines rather than business problems, it historically sets up a strong rebound opportunity once the initial panic subsides.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion strategy for NVDA on the 1-day timeframe. Entry condition: the stock drops more than 10% over any 3-day period while the broader semiconductor ETF (SMH) drops at least 7%. Exit condition: take profit when the price recovers to its 10-day simple moving average. Enforce a strict 8% stop loss and a maximum 21-day holding period.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
NVDA · 1d
0 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (3) below -10 — far
- ROC (3) below -7 — far
- Price crossed above SMA (10) — near
- RSI (14) crossed above 30 — far
- Price above SMA (10) — met
SMH · 1d
0 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- ROC (3) below -10 — far
- ROC (3) below -7 — far
- Price crossed above SMA (10) — near
- RSI (14) crossed above 30 — far
- Price above SMA (10) — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: ROC/SMA/RSI Crossover Long (NVDA@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: ROC/SMA/RSI Crossover Long (SMH@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (NVDA@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (SMH@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (SMH@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (SMH@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -10
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -7
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_nvda",
"name": "ROC/SMA/RSI Crossover Long (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -10
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -7
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_smh",
"name": "ROC/SMA/RSI Crossover Long (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_nvda",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_smh",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_nvda",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_smh",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_nvda",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_smh",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4143333333333334
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.828666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.4143333333333334,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -10
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -7
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_nvda",
"name": "ROC/SMA/RSI Crossover Long (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -10
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "roc",
"period": 3
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -7
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 30
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_smh",
"name": "ROC/SMA/RSI Crossover Long (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_nvda",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 21
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_smh",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_nvda",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_smh",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_nvda",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (NVDA@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:SMH",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_smh",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (SMH@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:SMH"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.4143333333333334
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.828666666666667
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.4143333333333334,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'War panic triggers record chip sell-off — contrarian bounce play on Nvidia'. Thesis: Escalating conflict and blockade news in the Middle East sparked a broad market panic that dragged down even the strongest tech and AI stocks. News of a record-breaking 15% crash in a major foreign AI chip supplier amplified the fear, triggering a blind sell-off across the entire semiconductor sector. However, Nvidia's underlying business remains incredibly robust with a massive market valuation and recent confirmation that its next major products are on track. When a market leader with massive revenue growth drops purely because of geopolitical headlines rather than business problems, it historically sets up a strong rebound opportunity once the initial panic subsides.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies