Public trading strategy
Saylor flips from buyer to seller as record ETF outflows mount — short Bitcoin p
Created
Thesis
The announcement from Saylor's Strategy that it may sell up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin fundamentally flips the company from a price floor to a source of massive overhead supply. This comes at the exact moment when spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing their worst month on record with $4 billion in outflows, meaning the market has no natural buyers to absorb this new wave of institutional selling. Furthermore, the put-call ratio hitting a 1-year high shows that sophisticated options traders are already positioning for a drop to $55K, confirming the bearish sentiment. Shorting MSTR is the cleanest way to play this, as the stock will be doubly pressured by both Bitcoin's falling price and the company's reversal of its core strategy.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based short strategy on MSTR on the D1 timeframe. Enter short when MSTR closes below its 10-day moving average and the 10-day moving average is below the 50-day moving average (confirming a downtrend). Exit the trade if MSTR closes above its 10-day moving average for two consecutive days, or if the 21-day holding period expires. Use a 8% trailing stop to manage volatility.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
COIN · 1d
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (10) — met
- SMA (10) below SMA (50) — met
- ADX (14) above 25 — far
- Price above SMA (10) — near
MSTR · 1d
2 of 3 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below SMA (10) — met
- SMA (10) below SMA (50) — met
- ADX (14) above 25 — far
- Price above SMA (10) — far
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: SMA/ADX Signal Long (MSTR@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: SMA/ADX Signal Long (COIN@1d) (4 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (MSTR@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (COIN@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (MSTR@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (COIN@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSTR@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[2] (COIN@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.8% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.5% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mstr",
"name": "SMA/ADX Signal Long (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_coin",
"name": "SMA/ADX Signal Long (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "COIN"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mstr",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_coin",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mstr",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_coin",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mstr",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_coin",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.77
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.54
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.77,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_mstr",
"name": "SMA/ADX Signal Long (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 50
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 25
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_coin",
"name": "SMA/ADX Signal Long (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "COIN"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "MSTR",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_mstr",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "COIN",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1_coin",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_mstr",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2_coin",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 98,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_mstr",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (MSTR@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "MSTR"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3_coin",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[2] (COIN@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "COIN"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.77
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.54
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"resistance_stop_rank": 2,
"risk_percent": 2.77,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Saylor flips from buyer to seller as record ETF outflows mount — short Bitcoin proxies'. Thesis: The announcement from Saylor's Strategy that it may sell up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin fundamentally flips the company from a price floor to a source of massive overhead supply. This comes at the exact moment when spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing their worst month on record with $4 billion in outflows, meaning the market has no natural buyers to absorb this new wave of institutional selling. Furthermore, the put-call ratio hitting a 1-year high shows that sophisticated options traders are already positioning for a drop to $55K, confirming the bearish sentiment. Shorting MSTR is the cleanest way to play this, as the stock will be doubly pressured by both Bitcoin's falling price and the company's reversal of its core strategy.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies