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Public trading strategy

When both TSMC and Samsung — the only companies that can make cutting-edge chips

Created

Thesis

When both TSMC and Samsung — the only companies that can make cutting-edge chips — sign up for ASML's newest machines, that's locked-in, multi-year order visibility for a company with no real competitor. Nvidia's evolution into the platform all AI runs on means that demand for leading-edge chips, and therefore ASML's tools, keeps compounding. This is a picks-and-shovels trade: you profit from AI capex regardless of which chip designer wins.

Strategy approach

When both TSMC and Samsung — the only companies that can make cutting-edge chips — sign up for ASML's newest machines, that's locked-in, multi-year order visibility for a company with no real competitor. Nvidia's evolution into the platform all AI runs on means that demand for leading-edge chips, and therefore ASML's tools, keeps compounding. This is a picks-and-shovels trade: you profit from AI capex regardless of which chip designer wins. Decision analysis profile: value. Required dimensions: valuation_method, valuation_sensitivity, business_economics, cash_quality, balance_sheet_leverage, dilution_capital_allocation, moat, catalysts, counterevidence, invalidation.

Markets and timeframes

Latest published rule evaluation

Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.

ASML · 1d

5 of 7 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price above EMA (50) — met
  • Price above EMA (50) — met
  • Price above EMA (50) — met
  • Price below Bollinger (20) — near
  • Stochastic (14) crossed above Stochastic (3) — far
  • RSI (14) above 45 — met
  • RSI (14) above RSI (14) — met
  • Price crossed below EMA (50) — near

NVDA · 1d

4 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price above EMA (50) — met
  • Price above EMA (50) — met
  • Price above EMA (50) — met
  • Price below Bollinger (20) — far
  • Stochastic (14) crossed above Stochastic (3) — far
  • RSI (14) above 45 — met
  • Price crossed below EMA (50) — far

TSM · 1d

4 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.

  • Price above EMA (50) — met
  • Price above EMA (50) — met
  • Price above EMA (50) — met
  • Price below Bollinger (20) — near
  • Stochastic (14) crossed above Stochastic (3) — far
  • RSI (14) above 45 — met
  • Price crossed below EMA (50) — far

Entry and exit at a glance

These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.

  • Entry: Order-Visibility Pullback Long with TSM/NVDA Demand Confirmation (ASML@1d) (7 conditions)
  • Entry: Order-Visibility Pullback Long with TSM/NVDA Demand Confirmation (NVDA@1d) (6 conditions)
  • Entry: Order-Visibility Pullback Long with TSM/NVDA Demand Confirmation (TSM@1d) (6 conditions)
  • Exit: Time Stop at 90 Bars (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (ASML@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (ASML@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (NVDA@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (TSM@1d) (1 condition)
  • Exit: Stop Loss at 2.4% (1 condition)
  • Exit: Take Profit at 4.8% (1 condition)
  • Exit: Catalyst Invalidation: TSM Demand Proxy Loses 50-Day Trend (1 condition)

Shared strategy rules

Rule configuration

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "middle",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "k",
            "indicator": {
              "d_period": 3,
              "k_period": 14,
              "name": "stochastic",
              "slowing": 3
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "d",
            "indicator": {
              "d_period": 3,
              "k_period": 3,
              "name": "stochastic",
              "slowing": 3
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 45
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "rsi",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_asml",
      "name": "Order-Visibility Pullback Long with TSM/NVDA Demand Confirmation (ASML@1d)",
      "priority": 1,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "middle",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "k",
            "indicator": {
              "d_period": 3,
              "k_period": 14,
              "name": "stochastic",
              "slowing": 3
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "d",
            "indicator": {
              "d_period": 3,
              "k_period": 3,
              "name": "stochastic",
              "slowing": 3
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 45
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_nvda",
      "name": "Order-Visibility Pullback Long with TSM/NVDA Demand Confirmation (NVDA@1d)",
      "priority": 2,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
    },
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "less_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "middle",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
              "period": 20,
              "std_dev": 2
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "k",
            "indicator": {
              "d_period": 3,
              "k_period": 14,
              "name": "stochastic",
              "slowing": 3
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "d",
            "indicator": {
              "d_period": 3,
              "k_period": 3,
              "name": "stochastic",
              "slowing": 3
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "rsi",
              "period": 14
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 45
          }
        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "entry_1_tsm",
      "name": "Order-Visibility Pullback Long with TSM/NVDA Demand Confirmation (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    }
  ],
  "exit_rules": [
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "holding_period_bars",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 90
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1",
      "name": "Time Stop at 90 Bars",
      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_asml",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (ASML@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_nvda",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (NVDA@1d)",
      "priority": 98,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "rank": 1,
            "type": "resistance_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_tsm",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 99,
      "purpose": "take_profit",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_asml",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[2] (ASML@1d)",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:ASML"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_nvda",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[2] (NVDA@1d)",
      "priority": 101,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:NVDA"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_above",
          "right": {
            "rank": 2,
            "type": "support_level"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_3_tsm",
      "name": "SL: Below Support[2] (TSM@1d)",
      "priority": 102,
      "purpose": "stop_loss",
      "target_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "less_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": -2.417333333333333
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_4",
      "name": "Stop Loss at 2.4%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
            "type": "position"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
            "value": 4.834666666666666
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
    },
    {
      "applies_to": "both",
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "crossed_below",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_6",
      "name": "Catalyst Invalidation: TSM Demand Proxy Loses 50-Day Trend",
      "priority": 50,
      "purpose": "signal"
    }
  ],
  "position_sizing": {
    "max_position_percent": 25,
    "method": {
      "risk_percent": 2.417333333333333,
      "support_stop_rank": 2,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
    },
    "min_position_value": 100
  },
  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 2
}

Indicator configuration

{
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "bollinger_bands",
      "period": 20,
      "std_dev": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 50
    },
    {
      "d_period": 3,
      "k_period": 14,
      "name": "stochastic",
      "slowing": 3
    },
    {
      "d_period": 3,
      "k_period": 3,
      "name": "stochastic",
      "slowing": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "bollinger_bands",
      "period": 20,
      "std_dev": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 50
    },
    {
      "d_period": 3,
      "k_period": 14,
      "name": "stochastic",
      "slowing": 3
    },
    {
      "d_period": 3,
      "k_period": 3,
      "name": "stochastic",
      "slowing": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    },
    {
      "name": "bollinger_bands",
      "period": 20,
      "std_dev": 2
    },
    {
      "name": "ema",
      "period": 50
    },
    {
      "d_period": 3,
      "k_period": 14,
      "name": "stochastic",
      "slowing": 3
    },
    {
      "d_period": 3,
      "k_period": 3,
      "name": "stochastic",
      "slowing": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "rsi",
      "period": 14
    }
  ]
}

Parsed strategy

{
  "data_dependencies": [
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:ASML",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    },
    {
      "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
      "timeframe": "1d"
    }
  ],
  "entry_rules": [
    {
      "conditions": [
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:TSM",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "indicator": {
              "name": "ema",
              "period": 50
            },
            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
            "chart_ref": {
              "symbol": "STOCK:NVDA",
              "timeframe": "1d"
            },
            "field": "close",
            "type": "price"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
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        },
        {
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          "right": {
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            "indicator": {
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        {
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            "field": "middle",
            "indicator": {
              "name": "bollinger_bands",
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              "std_dev": 2
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            "type": "indicator"
          }
        },
        {
          "left": {
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        },
        {
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            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
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        {
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            "indicator": {
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            "type": "indicator"
          },
          "operator": "greater_than",
          "right": {
            "chart_ref": {
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        }
      ],
      "direction": "long",
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    },
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        },
        {
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            "type": "indicator"
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        },
        {
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        },
        {
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        },
        {
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    {
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      ],
      "direction": "long",
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      "id": "entry_1_tsm",
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      "priority": 3,
      "trade_symbol": "STOCK:TSM"
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  ],
  "exit_rules": [
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            "field": "holding_period_bars",
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          },
          "operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
          "right": {
            "type": "constant",
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        }
      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_1",
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      "priority": 1,
      "purpose": "signal"
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    {
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          },
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            "type": "resistance_level"
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      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_2_asml",
      "name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (ASML@1d)",
      "priority": 97,
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    },
    {
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      "enabled": true,
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    },
    {
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      ],
      "enabled": true,
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    {
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      ],
      "enabled": true,
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      "enabled": true,
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      "enabled": true,
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    {
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      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "stop_loss"
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    {
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      ],
      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_5",
      "name": "Take Profit at 4.8%",
      "priority": 100,
      "purpose": "take_profit"
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    {
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      "conditions": [
        {
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      "enabled": true,
      "id": "exit_6",
      "name": "Catalyst Invalidation: TSM Demand Proxy Loses 50-Day Trend",
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  "position_sizing": {
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    "method": {
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      "support_stop_rank": 2,
      "type": "fixed_risk"
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    "min_position_value": 100
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  "trigger_timeframe": "1d",
  "version": 2
}

Strategy instructions

Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'When both TSMC and Samsung — the only companies that can make cutting-edge chips — sign up for ASML's newest machines, that's locked-in, multi-year order visibility for a company with no real competitor. Nvidia's evolution into the platform all AI runs on'. Thesis: When both TSMC and Samsung — the only companies that can make cutting-edge chips — sign up for ASML's newest machines, that's locked-in, multi-year order visibility for a company with no real competitor. Nvidia's evolution into the platform all AI runs on means that demand for leading-edge chips, and therefore ASML's tools, keeps compounding. This is a picks-and-shovels trade: you profit from AI capex regardless of which chip designer wins.

Performance

No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.

What this public preview can establish

  • The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
  • Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
  • No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.

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