Public trading strategy
Capital One's Discover merger gets its first earnings test — position for a post
Created
Thesis
Capital One's acquisition of Discover was one of the biggest bank deals of the year, and this is the first earnings report where management can point to concrete progress on combining the two companies. When a major merger closes, the first earnings report acts as a credibility test — if executives can show cost savings or revenue bumps, the stock usually rewards them. The bar is arguably low because investors tend to be skeptical of big deals, so a solid number with an upbeat integration update could trigger a relief rally.
Strategy approach
Build a swing strategy around COF Q2 earnings (after market close Tuesday). Entry: initiate a long position during regular trading hours on Tuesday if COF is trading within 3% of its 5-day VWAP. Exit: close position on Thursday close. Stop loss: 7% below Tuesday close price. Target: 10% gain from entry.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
COF · 1d
1 of 4 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below 3 — far
- Price above -3 — met
- VWAP above 1 — unknown
- ADX (14) above 20 — far
DFS · 1d
Incomplete evidence; No entry condition values were published.
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: VWAP/ADX Signal Long (COF@1d) (5 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (1 condition)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (COF@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (COF@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.2% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.5% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "vwap"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "VWAP/ADX Signal Long (COF@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:COF"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (COF@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (COF@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.23125
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.4625
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.23125,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "vwap"
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -3
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "vwap"
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 1
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "VWAP/ADX Signal Long (COF@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:COF"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 3
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (COF@1d)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:COF",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (COF@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:COF"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.23125
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.2%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.4625
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.23125,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Capital One's Discover merger gets its first earnings test — position for a post-report pop'. Thesis: Capital One's acquisition of Discover was one of the biggest bank deals of the year, and this is the first earnings report where management can point to concrete progress on combining the two companies. When a major merger closes, the first earnings report acts as a credibility test — if executives can show cost savings or revenue bumps, the stock usually rewards them. The bar is arguably low because investors tend to be skeptical of big deals, so a solid number with an upbeat integration update could trigger a relief rally.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
Explore
How CommonQuant researches and tests strategies · Public paper-trading record and its limits · Discover public strategies