Public trading strategy
Oil's run above $100 was driven by fear of supply disruption, and that fear prem
Created
Thesis
Oil's run above $100 was driven by fear of supply disruption, and that fear premium deflates fast when diplomacy enters the picture — the first reports of Gulf-state talks already knocked prices back under $100. At the same time, the IEA is warning that consumers are cutting back on oil because it has simply become too expensive, which puts a ceiling on how much higher prices can go from demand alone. Meanwhile, diesel passing a record $6 shows refined-product stress that refiners capture even if crude pulls back. A short crude position paired with refining exposure profits from the rally unwinding without betting against the underlying energy squeeze.
Strategy approach
Oil's run above $100 was driven by fear of supply disruption, and that fear premium deflates fast when diplomacy enters the picture — the first reports of Gulf-state talks already knocked prices back under $100. At the same time, the IEA is warning that consumers are cutting back on oil because it has simply become too expensive, which puts a ceiling on how much higher prices can go from demand alone. Meanwhile, diesel passing a record $6 shows refined-product stress that refiners capture even if crude pulls back. A short crude position paired with refining exposure profits from the rally unwinding without betting against the underlying energy squeeze. Decision analysis profile: leveraged. Required dimensions: company_view, instrument_view, contract_identity, event_expiry_timing,…
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
CRAK · 1d
0 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below EMA (20) — far
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- Price below EMA (20) — far
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- Price above EMA (20) — met
- RSI (14) above 60 — met
USO · 1d
0 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below EMA (20) — far
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- Price below EMA (20) — far
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- Price above EMA (20) — met
- RSI (14) above 60 — met
XOM · 1d
0 of 6 published entry conditions marked met.
- Price below EMA (20) — near
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- Price below EMA (20) — near
- RSI (14) below 50 — far
- MACD (12,26,9) below 0 — far
- Price above EMA (20) — met
- RSI (14) above 60 — met
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: EMA/RSI/MACD Signal Short (USO@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: EMA/RSI/MACD Signal Long (CRAK@1d) (4 conditions)
- Entry: Crossover Long (CRAK@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: Position Exit Rule (USO@1d) (3 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (USO@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (CRAK@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (CRAK@1d) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.3% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 4.6% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CRAK",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/RSI/MACD Signal Short (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2",
"name": "EMA/RSI/MACD Signal Long (CRAK@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CRAK"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3",
"name": "Crossover Long (CRAK@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CRAK"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_uso",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_crak",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CRAK"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRAK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRAK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_uso",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (CRAK@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRAK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRAK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_crak",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (CRAK@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CRAK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.2960000000000003
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.5920000000000005
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.2960000000000003,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:CRAK",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "short",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "EMA/RSI/MACD Signal Short (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 50
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "histogram",
"indicator": {
"fast": 12,
"name": "macd",
"signal": 9,
"slow": 26
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 0
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_2",
"name": "EMA/RSI/MACD Signal Long (CRAK@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CRAK"
},
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "high",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 618,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_3",
"name": "Crossover Long (CRAK@1d)",
"priority": 2,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:CRAK"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "ema",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 45
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Position Exit Rule (USO@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "signal",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 1272,
"type": "fibonacci_extension"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "TP: Fib Extension 127.2% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 96,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_below",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "SL: Below Support[1] (USO@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_uso",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:USO",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4_crak",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (USO@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CRAK"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRAK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRAK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_uso",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (CRAK@1d)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:USO"
},
{
"applies_to": "short",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRAK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:CRAK",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"ratio": 786,
"type": "fibonacci_retracement"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_5_crak",
"name": "SL: Fib Retracement 78.6% (CRAK@1d)",
"priority": 101,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "STOCK:CRAK"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.2960000000000003
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_6",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.3%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 4.5920000000000005
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_7",
"name": "Take Profit at 4.6%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"fib_stop_ratio": 786,
"risk_percent": 2.2960000000000003,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Oil's run above $100 was driven by fear of supply disruption, and that fear premium deflates fast when diplomacy enters the picture — the first reports of Gulf-state talks already knocked prices back under $100. At the same time, the IEA is warning that c'. Thesis: Oil's run above $100 was driven by fear of supply disruption, and that fear premium deflates fast when diplomacy enters the picture — the first reports of Gulf-state talks already knocked prices back under $100. At the same time, the IEA is warning that consumers are cutting back on oil because it has simply become too expensive, which puts a ceiling on how much higher prices can go from demand alone. Meanwhile, diesel passing a record $6 shows refined-product stress that refiners capture even if crude pulls back. A short crude position paired with refining exposure profits from the rally unwinding without betting against the underlying energy squeeze.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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