Public trading strategy
Fed signals inflation cooling just as Bitcoin tests key support — bounce play on
Created
Thesis
Bitcoin has been under relentless pressure, with nearly $4 billion pulled from spot ETFs in June alone as traders feared aggressive Fed rate hikes. That selling pressure pushed BTC down to test the critical $60,000 support level — a line it has struggled to hold. The catalyst for a bounce arrived on July 1st when Fed Chair Warsh noted that inflation risks have come down, prompting Bitcoin to immediately reclaim $60K. While Warsh hasn't officially ruled out a hike at the next meeting, his dovish pivot on inflation directly removes the primary fear that drove the June ETF exodus. With leverage cleaned out and $60K holding as support, the setup is for a relief rally back toward the mid-$60K range as short-sellers cover.
Strategy approach
Build a mean-reversion strategy on BTC-USD using the H4 timeframe. Identify entries when price touches or dips below the psychologically key $60,000 level and RSI(14) falls below 35 (oversold), but only enter if the previous daily candle closed green. Set a stop loss at $57,500 (roughly 4% below the $60K floor) and target a move back to the 20-day moving average, with a max hold of 10 days.
Markets and timeframes
Latest published rule evaluation
Evaluated . This is a dated rule snapshot, not a live price or trade execution confirmation.
BTC · 4h
2 of 5 published entry conditions marked met.
- RSI (14) below 35 — far
- Price below 60000 — near
- Price above 57500 — met
- Price above SMA (20) — near
- ADX (14) above 20 — met
IBIT · 4h
No entry condition values were published.
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Oversold RSI/SMA/ADX Long (BTC@4h) (7 conditions)
- Exit: TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h) (1 condition)
- Exit: Stop Loss at 2.8% (1 condition)
- Exit: Take Profit at 5.5% (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 35
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60000
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 57500
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Oversold RSI/SMA/ADX Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7539666666666665
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.507933333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.7539666666666665,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "rsi",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 35
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 60000
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 57500
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "low",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "support_level"
}
},
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "BTC",
"timeframe": "4h"
},
"field": "adx",
"indicator": {
"name": "adx",
"period": 14
},
"type": "indicator"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 20
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1",
"name": "Oversold RSI/SMA/ADX Long (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "BTC"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"rank": 1,
"type": "resistance_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "TP: Near Resistance[1] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 97,
"purpose": "take_profit",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "crossed_above",
"right": {
"rank": 2,
"type": "support_level"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "SL: Below Support[2] (BTC@4h)",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss",
"target_symbol": "BTC"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "less_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": -2.7539666666666665
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Stop Loss at 2.8%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "stop_loss"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 5.507933333333333
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_4",
"name": "Take Profit at 5.5%",
"priority": 100,
"purpose": "take_profit"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2.7539666666666665,
"support_stop_rank": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "4h",
"version": 1
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Fed signals inflation cooling just as Bitcoin tests key support — bounce play on BTC'. Thesis: Bitcoin has been under relentless pressure, with nearly $4 billion pulled from spot ETFs in June alone as traders feared aggressive Fed rate hikes. That selling pressure pushed BTC down to test the critical $60,000 support level — a line it has struggled to hold. The catalyst for a bounce arrived on July 1st when Fed Chair Warsh noted that inflation risks have come down, prompting Bitcoin to immediately reclaim $60K. While Warsh hasn't officially ruled out a hike at the next meeting, his dovish pivot on inflation directly removes the primary fear that drove the June ETF exodus. With leverage cleaned out and $60K holding as support, the setup is for a relief rally back toward the mid-$60K range as short-sellers cover.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The dated rule snapshot above shows the conditions evaluated at that time. It does not prove a current trigger or executed trade.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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