Public trading strategy
Fed flags fresh inflation threat just as tech crumbles — short the Nasdaq on ext
Created
Thesis
The Fed is explicitly flagging a new inflation threat, signaling that interest rates will stay restrictive for the foreseeable future. Bond traders are taking this seriously, pricing in an extended inflation fight that leaves no room for the rate cuts growth companies desperately need. With the broad market already in a confirmed selloff—described as a 'bloodbath' in Asia and driven by a chip stock rout—this renewed inflation fear removes the central bank 'put' that buyers usually rely on. High-growth tech companies are the most vulnerable to high borrowing costs, making the Nasdaq the clearest casualty as the market adjusts to a longer period of tight money.
Strategy approach
Build a rule-based swing strategy entering SHORT on QQQ on D1 timeframe. Entry conditions: price closes below its 20-day simple moving average AND the 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) closes above its 10-day moving average on the same day. Exit conditions: 8% profit target or a close back above the 20-day SMA for a maximum 15-day hold.
Markets and timeframes
Entry and exit at a glance
These are the named rules in the shared configuration. Review the full conditions below before using a strategy.
- Entry: Rate-Off Risk-Off Fade (QQQ@1d) (2 conditions)
- Exit: Take Profit at 8% (1 condition)
- Exit: Signal Exit: Close Below 20-SMA (1 condition)
- Exit: Time Stop: 15-Day Hold (1 condition)
Shared strategy rules
Rule configuration
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:^TNX",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:^TNX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:^TNX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_qqq",
"name": "Rate-Off Risk-Off Fade (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Take Profit at 8%",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Signal Exit: Close Below 20-SMA",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time Stop: 15-Day Hold",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Indicator configuration
{
"indicators": [
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
{
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
}
]
}Parsed strategy
{
"data_dependencies": [
{
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
{
"symbol": "STOCK:^TNX",
"timeframe": "1d"
}
],
"entry_rules": [
{
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
},
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:^TNX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "greater_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:^TNX",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 10
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"direction": "long",
"enabled": true,
"id": "entry_1_qqq",
"name": "Rate-Off Risk-Off Fade (QQQ@1d)",
"priority": 1,
"trade_symbol": "STOCK:QQQ"
}
],
"exit_rules": [
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "unrealized_pnl_percent",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 8
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_1",
"name": "Take Profit at 8%",
"priority": 1,
"purpose": "take_profit"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"field": "close",
"type": "price"
},
"operator": "less_than",
"right": {
"chart_ref": {
"symbol": "STOCK:QQQ",
"timeframe": "1d"
},
"indicator": {
"name": "sma",
"period": 20
},
"type": "indicator"
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_2",
"name": "Signal Exit: Close Below 20-SMA",
"priority": 2,
"purpose": "signal"
},
{
"applies_to": "both",
"conditions": [
{
"left": {
"field": "holding_period_bars",
"type": "position"
},
"operator": "greater_than_or_equal",
"right": {
"type": "constant",
"value": 15
}
}
],
"enabled": true,
"id": "exit_3",
"name": "Time Stop: 15-Day Hold",
"priority": 3,
"purpose": "signal"
}
],
"position_sizing": {
"max_position_percent": 25,
"method": {
"risk_percent": 2,
"type": "fixed_risk"
},
"min_position_value": 100
},
"trigger_timeframe": "1d",
"version": 3
}Strategy instructions
Trading agent generated from recommendation idea 'Fed flags fresh inflation threat just as tech crumbles — short the Nasdaq on extended rate fears'. Thesis: The Fed is explicitly flagging a new inflation threat, signaling that interest rates will stay restrictive for the foreseeable future. Bond traders are taking this seriously, pricing in an extended inflation fight that leaves no room for the rate cuts growth companies desperately need. With the broad market already in a confirmed selloff—described as a 'bloodbath' in Asia and driven by a chip stock rout—this renewed inflation fear removes the central bank 'put' that buyers usually rely on. High-growth tech companies are the most vulnerable to high borrowing costs, making the Nasdaq the clearest casualty as the market adjusts to a longer period of tight money.
Performance
No trade count, win rate, or realized P&L figures are provided in this public preview. The thesis and shared rules do not establish a performance record.
What this public preview can establish
- The thesis and strategy approach describe a market view. They do not show whether an entry or exit condition is currently met.
- Technical strategy fields are shared above. Inspect the actual conditions and check when they were evaluated before relying on them.
- No trade count, win rate, or P&L figure is published in this preview. It cannot establish a performance record.
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